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Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Conservatives 37, Residents 12, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Green 1, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2011): Conservatives 585 (84%), Greens 69 (10%), Liberal Democrats 43 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Glozier (Con), William Hartington (Green), Ron McEvoy (UKIP), Arnold Verrall (Lib Dem) Epping Forest, a rock solid Conservative seat…

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New marginals poll by Survation for UNITE union finds 9% CON to LAB swing in key seats pic.twitter.com/q3s7B8pLpS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 If this actually happened EdM would win a comfortable majority Many of the seats in the poll were included within the recent phases of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling though his latest numbers suggest a move about one half of what Survation has found. A 9% swing is far better for Labour than any recent national…

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Given how difficult it was for those outside Scotland to watch last night here are three YouTube videos of the entire event. Part 2 is perhaps the sharpest. Tonight's #ScotDecides #indyref @icmresearch debate poll versus Survation's pre-debate expectations attached: pic.twitter.com/aIvZ32x3KP — Survation (@Survation) August 5, 2014

This really does get the flavour of the evening.

The chart shows the main predictions for GE2015 from the two leading predictors – the long-standing Electoral Calculus from Martin Baxter and the relatively new one from Stephen Fisher. Ad can be see there is a huge gap between the two. Baxter points to a LAB majority Fisher to a hung parliament. Both are based on current polling the main difference is that Fisher makes an adjustment to deal with the way polls have historically operated. The notable element here…

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Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 33, Labour 16, British National Party 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 14) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservative 1,473, 1,399, 1,309 Labour 1,306, 1,153, 1,058 Candidates duly nominated: Hanif Asmal (Con), Chris Canham (British Democrats), Stepgen Denhan (BNP), Tom Prior (UKIP), Ralph Raven (Lab) On the face of it Charnwood appears to be a Conservative area, however appearances…

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If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months. What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through. What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s…

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