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CON government just 2% ahead of LAB one amongst UKIP voters After the July round of Ashcroft marginals polling I highlighted the “preferred GE2015 outcome” polling which surprisingly had a CON government only 1% ahead of a LAB one. Well another month and data from different group of CON held marginals to look at and we find almost the same pattern – only the CON government preferred outcome lead is 2% and not 1%. What strikes me is that as…

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CON being killed in the marginals by UKIP & LD-LAB switching @LordAshcroft headline on his latest round of marginals polling http://t.co/AoSsiFHXH7 sums it up. pic.twitter.com/fzkCivDkwa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 On the basis of today's round of @LordAshcroft polls LAB is doing better in the marginals and is heading for working majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 LAB taking a third of all 2010 LD voters in latest batch of LAB-CON marginals polled by @LordAshcroft much…

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What’s happening the 2-4% range of marginals? Thanks to Lord Ashcroft and to a lesser extent Survation we are now seeing more full constituency polling in key marginals than has ever been available before. This is not the old-style marginals polling where maybe 100-200 are sampled in each seat and an overall swing figure is produced. What’s being made available are full single seat polls with proper sample sizes Lord Ashcroft has announced that a new round will be published…

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Window display from shop in Edinburgh's Royal Mile pic.twitter.com/tq1c1MeNKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2014 YouGov/Times poll: After excluding DKs it’s YES 43%+3: NO 57%(-3) I’ve just got back from three days in Edinburgh where I was totally immersed in the momentous decision that the Scottish people are due to make in the referendum on September 18th. I was a panellist at the Festival of Politics which was held in the superb Scottish Parliament Building just across the road…

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The FT's Janan Ganesh pic.twitter.com/lRZnizuSWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2014 The Janan Ganesh comment that goes right to the heart of GE2015 In the run up to the May elections the George Osborne biographer and FT columnist wrote the following which goes right to the heart of the Tory challenge on economic policy. “…Anyone who thinks the effectiveness of Labour’s cost of living motif is somehow pegged to economic data does not understand why it worked in the…

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What’s surprising is the lack of interest in the party leaders The chart is a snapshot, based on total amounts matched on the Betfair exchange, of what it happening on the political betting markets at the moment. Much of our talk might be of the general election and the future of the party leaders but that is not what is grabbing the attention of punters. Very few political markets ever top the £1m mark on Betfair and my guess, based…

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Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 155 (50% -34%), UKIP 122 (40%), Green 23 (7% -3%), Liberal Democrats 7 (2% -4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 33 (10%) on a swing of 37% from Conservative to UKIP Warboys and Bury on Huntingdonshire (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 616 (47% +1%), UKIP 560 (42% +16%), Liberal Democrats 78 (6% -7%), Labour 72 (5% -10%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 56 (5%) on a…

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Could Labour be the best bet? After the big news about Boris and GE2015 we now have further details about Nigel Farage’s intentions. It looks as though he is going for South Thanet – a seat that had been strongly tipped and where he has stood before. A selection meeting has been fixed for August 26th though it does look like a formality for the party leader. The seat was won by the Tories in May 2010 by Laura Sandys…

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