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Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 33, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 6, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 18) Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 288 (32%), Green 235 (26%), Liberal Democrat 207 (23%), Conservative 159 (18%) Candidates duly nominated: Maryam Ahmed (Con), Kenrick Bird (UKIP), Tony Brett (Lib Dem), Alex Hollingsworth (Lab), Richard Scrase (Green) The gleaming spires of Oxford has hidden a battle between the Liberal Democrats and the…

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CON and UKIP edge up too; Others and LDs take a knock The one-time received wisdom that August polls should be ignored because summer sun and silly season made sampling and support unstable took a good hit last month when Mike noted the accuracy of ICM’s August polls in the run-up to three of the last four elections.  Of course, polls are snapshots not predictions and are bound by a political equivalent of Newton’s First Law: polling taken outside periods…

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YouGov IndyRef poll for the Times finds NO leads down to just 6%. It was 18% in July. %age of LAB voters supporting YES up from 13% to 30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov/Times IndyRef poll finds undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov's Peter Kellner says "Salmond is within touching distance of victory"; http://t.co/eVCF04rult — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 Via @benrileysmith How YouGov IndyRef polls have…

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Populus online reverts to “Good for LAB on Mondays, Bad on Fridays”

Dudley South becomes the 8th CON seat where the party won't benefit from the 1st time incumbency bonus pic.twitter.com/IsGnBTU9w4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 The more that follow Kelly route the bigger the task at GE2015 Dudley South was won by the Tories at GE2010 with a majority of 10.1% and is LAB target number 75. On current national polling it is one of a critical batch of seats that Labour needs to gain in order to secure…

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According to poll of Clacton voters reported on front page of Mail on Sunday UKIP has a 44% lead pic.twitter.com/ELzVkKtmv5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 30, 2014 There’s what I assume is a Survation poll of Clacton voters in the Mail on Sunday. The only only info is on the front page – above. This looks sensational. As soon as more detail is available this will be update. Update – we now have this from the poll The detail from the…

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North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 711 (53% +16%), Labour 320 (24% -9%), Conservative 117 (9% -9%), United Kingdom Indepdendence Party 112 (8%), Green 94 (7% -5%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 391 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat This result will be seized upon by Northern Liberal Democrats as a suggestion that the constant hammering they have been getting in recent years may be coming to…

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