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@MSmithsonPB A shy No in Lenzie East Dinbartonshire pic.twitter.com/kA20O1uvPJ — Dr Bel Brooks-Gordon (@BelindaBG) September 19, 2014 Curtice says that the NO winning margin will be bigger than that predicted by the polls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 Better Together's Jim Murphy celebrating with a supporter pic.twitter.com/kpxb4hNrxg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 This front page could come to haunt the three leaders This front page from the Daily Record is set to dominate Westminster politics. It's…

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But does this benefit NO or YES? Less than three hours to go and all the indications that that the turnout is very large. At this stage there’s nothing to measure it against and it’s hard making a prediction on something which there’s an active betting market. Quite who this benefits most is also hard to say. Whether it is YES getting out the first time voters or NO bringing in the “Shy Noes” or maybe it’s a large slab…

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Final @IpsosMORI phone poll has YES 47 NO 53 This is same as @Survation phone poll where fieldwork finished at 9pm last night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 @IpsosMORI poll carried out Monday & Tues had 2% NO lead The one completed last night had 6% NO lead. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll…

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Wednesday's Independent front page – "A nation divided against itself" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indref pic.twitter.com/zg36ji6Uoq — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 16, 2014 DAILY MAIL FRONT PAGE: 'The Seriously Nasty Party' #skypapers pic.twitter.com/Qhcp6KL4CE — Sky News (@SkyNews) September 16, 2014

How the IndyRef NO price has moved over past month. pic.twitter.com/5TYmxFxFMt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 There really hasn’t been that much movement Coming up this evening ICM for the Scotsman and then Survation for the Mail – both polls online. Surprisingly betting has not been as heavy as on previous days. Everybody is waiting for new polls. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

More than 80% of postal votes have now been returned The big unknown from this election is turnout – something that all the pollsters seek to measure and apply when working out their final vote shares. Thus the 2% NO lead ICM phone poll used the firm’s standard turnout adjuster of attaching a 50% discount to those who didn’t vote in previous parliamentary elections. But in the context Thursday’s totally unprecedented election we don’t know whether that’s a valid approach…

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Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 364 (38% -4% on 2011), Conservatives 212 (22%), UKIP 208 (22%), Liberal Democrats 112 (12% -22%), Greens 51 (5% -5%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 152 (16%) on a swing of 13% from Labour to Conservative Castle on Cumbria (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 389 (38% -3%), Conservatives 245 (24% +13%), UKIP 235 (23% +3%), Liberal Democrats 112 (11% -13%), Greens 51 (5% +1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 144 (14%) on…

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At current odds the value bet is on YES BREAKING: Scottish #indyref too close to call says ICM @guardian poll > 42% no, 40% yes, but a full 17% undecided http://t.co/pSmwv00Zl7 — Guardian Scotland (@GdnScotland) September 12, 2014 With the IndyRef so close the value bet must be on YES. £100 bet on Betfair provides winnings of YES £350 NO £24 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 Reason why 17% DKs in ICM phone poll compared with 4% YouGov is that…

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