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Today's YouGov sees UKIP at highest level recorded by firm CON 31 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 19 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/vSbRZITf97 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Is this going to fade or are we seeing a permanent change? The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% this morning. The latest figures have CON on 31% and LAB on 33% a joint main two party aggregate of just 64% which is a…

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Kelly Tolurst 4/6 favourite to win 1st all postal by-election primary @KellyTolhurst one of the two candidates to be CON candidate in R&S – Britain's first all-postal by-election primary pic.twitter.com/DFOCI8GnuX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2014 Kelly’s opponent Anna Firth at 11/10 @anna_firth seeking the CON nomination in the Britain's first ever all-postal by-election primary. pic.twitter.com/rvPW3FSun9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2014 The winner of the CON all-postal primary in Rochester will have to beat Mark @MarkReckless pic.twitter.com/hnVfK7c6B6…

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Sky News, BBC, ITV & Channel 4 plan to hold series of leader debates ahead of General Election http://t.co/naR9pRGjJX pic.twitter.com/F5zxB4QOcS — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 13, 2014 Full story here.

Detailed data from Survation for Southern England has UKIP on 37.6% four pts ahead of the Tories — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Survation/MoS poll has 30.3% of men backing UKIP compared with 18.9% of women — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 The big polling question tonight is why there’s such a big difference in the UKIP shares. Opinium 17%, YouGov 16% with Survation on 25%. Chart updated to include Survation with UKIP on record 25% for any…

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Amazing betting odds on the CON leadership in Oct 1974 from the BBC re-run of GE1974 results programme. Maggie 50/1 pic.twitter.com/epdoKJmV5y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Did you get on? I certainly didn’t The BBC Parliament Channel has been re-running the October 1974 General Election results programme as part of its intermittent series of playing back old elections. I love them and you learn so much simply from seeing how things were seen then. A common feature of…

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Some comfort for the Tories. UKIP lost two of the three council elections it was defending last night. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014 On the Betfair exchange punters give rate UKIP's chance of winning Rochester & Strood at 75%. CON full postal primary to select candidate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014 William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn odds on next UKIP leader 5/2 D CARSWELL 4/1 P O’FLYNN 5/1 D JAMES 6/1 S WOOLFE 7/1 P NUTTALL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014…

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Waterloo on Blackpool (Conservative defence) Result: Conservatives 406 (34%), UKIP 372 (32%), Labour 347 (30%), Liberal Democrats 34 (3%), British National Party 17 (1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 34 (2%) Bicknacre with East and West Hanningfield on Chelmsford (Conservative defence) Result: Conservatives 649 (56%), UKIP 359 (31%), Labour 80 (7%), Greens 35 (3%), Liberal Democrats 34 (3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 290 (25%) Southgate on Crawley (UKIP defence from Con defection) Result: Labour 733 (44% +3%),…

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