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West Side and Ness (An Taobh Siar agus Nis) on the Western Isles (Eilean Siar) (Ind defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 21, Scottish National Party 7, Labour 3 (Independent majority of 11) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Capital E denotes elected Independents: Alastair Dunlop 94, Alistair MacLennan 119, Iain Morrison 354 E, John MacKay 310 E, Kenneth Murray 289 E (80%) Scottish National Party 298 E (20%) Candidate duly nominated (and elected): Alistair…

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Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times Con 34 Lab 33 LD 8 UKIP 15 Greens 5 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 7, 2015 Opinium/Observer: #deadheat Lab 34% (-1), Con 34% (n/c), LibDem 8% (+2), UKIP 14% (n/c), Greens 7% (+1) http://t.co/LxGJVdrwp9 — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) March 7, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY figures from Opinium/Observer poll CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GRN 7 Represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2015 My guess is that there won't…

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The widespread presumption that the election is about parties is not always applicable There is an almost total obsession that the vote on May 7th is about parties reinforced by the fact that almost all the polling asks WHICH you will be supporting rather than WHO. In fact for many voters the primary consideration is who will be their representative at Westminster not the party brand. This is why incumbency can be so important and the relationship that individual MPs…

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Something to make the blue team happy – perhaps? Make of this what you will and it might just be a huge coincidence but there appears to be a split between the pollsters that have been tested in a general election and those that haven’t. The pollsters with asterisks next to their names in the chart were all regular pollsters in the run-up to GE2010. The ones without them weren’t. Some of the firms classified as untested were around in…

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Tonight’s dramatic big political news pic.twitter.com/erNWzuBYo5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 22, 2015 Both are former Foreign Secretaries

Bar Hill on Cambridgeshire (Con Defence) Lynda Harford (Con) 787 (46% +1%) Martin Hale (UKIP) 251 (15% -7%) Fiona Whelan (Lib Dem) 238 (14% +6%) Alex Smith (Lab) 235 (14% unchanged) Claudia Roland (Green) 200 (12% +3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 536 (31%) on a swing of 4% from UKIP to Con Oswestry East on Shropshire (Con Defence) John Price (Con) 629 (47% +3%) Claire Norris (Lab) 247 (19% -4%) Duncan Kerr (Green) 231 (17% no candidate in…

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Extraordinary. What's alleged to be list of seats that CON is not targeting. http://t.co/Jd9kwMQ4Yp (via @Markpack) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 This is from Mark Pack. In this context “Non-target” means either ‘we’re not going to win’ or ‘we think this is super-safe’. Some are blindingly obvious others are less so. Ben Adams – Stoke-on-Trent North Bim Afolami – Lewisham Deptford Festus Akinbusoye – West Ham Heidi Allen – South Cambridgeshire Valerie Allen – Sefton Central Sue Arnold –…

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