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Category: Coalition

The Thursday night by-election preview by Harry Hayfield

The Thursday night by-election preview by Harry Hayfield

West Side and Ness (An Taobh Siar agus Nis) on the Western Isles (Eilean Siar) (Ind defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 21, Scottish National Party 7, Labour 3 (Independent majority of 11) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Capital E denotes elected Independents: Alastair Dunlop 94, Alistair MacLennan 119, Iain Morrison 354 E, John MacKay 310 E, Kenneth Murray 289 E (80%) Scottish National Party 298 E (20%) Candidate duly nominated (and elected): Alistair…

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The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight

The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight

Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times Con 34 Lab 33 LD 8 UKIP 15 Greens 5 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 7, 2015 Opinium/Observer: #deadheat Lab 34% (-1), Con 34% (n/c), LibDem 8% (+2), UKIP 14% (n/c), Greens 7% (+1) http://t.co/LxGJVdrwp9 — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) March 7, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY figures from Opinium/Observer poll CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GRN 7 Represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2015 My guess is that there won't…

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Why framing constituency battles on choosing individual MPs is the best defensive strategy for the LDs

Why framing constituency battles on choosing individual MPs is the best defensive strategy for the LDs

The widespread presumption that the election is about parties is not always applicable There is an almost total obsession that the vote on May 7th is about parties reinforced by the fact that almost all the polling asks WHICH you will be supporting rather than WHO. In fact for many voters the primary consideration is who will be their representative at Westminster not the party brand. This is why incumbency can be so important and the relationship that individual MPs…

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A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

Nigel Farage in Thanet South pic.twitter.com/dIt7eHFjCT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 %age probability of UKIP victory in target seats from @Election4castUK S Thanet 2% chance pic.twitter.com/jfsBLKJilp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 Betfair exchange UKIP South Thanet (Farage) a 60%chance pic.twitter.com/SrnGnR5oP6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 It was Tim Montgomerie in today’s Times who alerted me to the forecast for Farage’s South Thanet that has been produced by the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast – a…

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All CON lead polls are from firms which’ve been tested in a GE unlike all but one of those with LAB leads

All CON lead polls are from firms which’ve been tested in a GE unlike all but one of those with LAB leads

Something to make the blue team happy – perhaps? Make of this what you will and it might just be a huge coincidence but there appears to be a split between the pollsters that have been tested in a general election and those that haven’t. The pollsters with asterisks next to their names in the chart were all regular pollsters in the run-up to GE2010. The ones without them weren’t. Some of the firms classified as untested were around in…

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Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

Bar Hill on Cambridgeshire (Con Defence) Lynda Harford (Con) 787 (46% +1%) Martin Hale (UKIP) 251 (15% -7%) Fiona Whelan (Lib Dem) 238 (14% +6%) Alex Smith (Lab) 235 (14% unchanged) Claudia Roland (Green) 200 (12% +3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 536 (31%) on a swing of 4% from UKIP to Con Oswestry East on Shropshire (Con Defence) John Price (Con) 629 (47% +3%) Claire Norris (Lab) 247 (19% -4%) Duncan Kerr (Green) 231 (17% no candidate in…

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The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the cold

The CON candidates who, allegedly, will be left out in the cold

Extraordinary. What's alleged to be list of seats that CON is not targeting. http://t.co/Jd9kwMQ4Yp (via @Markpack) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 This is from Mark Pack. In this context “Non-target” means either ‘we’re not going to win’ or ‘we think this is super-safe’. Some are blindingly obvious others are less so. Ben Adams – Stoke-on-Trent North Bim Afolami – Lewisham Deptford Festus Akinbusoye – West Ham Heidi Allen – South Cambridgeshire Valerie Allen – Sefton Central Sue Arnold –…

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