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Category: Coalition

The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for President for the first time

The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for President for the first time

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And Bernie Sanders played his part Congratulations to Betfair and the other bookies who have been quick to settle long-standing US WH2016 bets as events have unfolded at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. It’s now official – Clinton versus Trump. Given the continuing disquiet amongst some of his followers in the hall the 74 year old socialist from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, played his part in the evening’s choreography. Vermont passed when it was invited to record its votes. Then…

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If Hillary Clinton does win in November then Michelle Obama’s convention speech will be seen as being crucial

If Hillary Clinton does win in November then Michelle Obama’s convention speech will be seen as being crucial

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The First Lady rescues the Convention By all accounts the opening hours of the first day at the Democratic Convention had not been good for the Clinton campaign. The leaked emails and the irreconcilable Bernie supporters have made what should have been a showcase into something of a nightmare. There were persistent chants of “lock her up” whenever Clinton’s name was mentioned. Then Michelle Obama took the stage and made a powerful heartfelt case for the the person who was…

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Wiping out the Lib Dems might have been Cameron’s greatest strategic mistake as Prime Minister

Wiping out the Lib Dems might have been Cameron’s greatest strategic mistake as Prime Minister

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Picture: The apotheosis of the Tory targeting of the Lib Dems at the last general election. Why Cameron might still be PM if the coalition had continued after May 2015. When David Cameron reflects on his earlier than anticipated departure as Prime Minister I wonder if in hindsight he’ll regret his and Sir Lynton’s Crosby targeting of the Lib Dem held seats at the last general election. At the time the 27 Tory gains from the Lib Dems was hailed…

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France’s next president: Hollande is sunk but who will follow him?

France’s next president: Hollande is sunk but who will follow him?

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The battle for the Élysée will be between the centre-right and the far-right Complacency has been the bane of the established political class across the Western world these last few years; a bad habit it doesn’t seem capable of kicking. Time and again, outsiders have shaken up the order, from Tsipras in Greece to Labour electing Corbyn to Trump taking the Republican nomination to Bernie Sanders running Hillary close to the UK voting for Brexit. Parties and electorates have been…

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YouGov CON member ratings of the three still in the race raise questions over Gove

YouGov CON member ratings of the three still in the race raise questions over Gove

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But very good for May In its recent party membership polling YouGov has introduced a ratings question with a simple format “Generally speaking, do you have a positive or negative opinion of the following people?” In the context of the fight for Number 10 this might have quite a bearing. What’s interesting is to look at responses based on how those sampled voted in the referendum. May rates at 89%-2% amongst remainers but still a respectable 67%-17% with leavers. Leadsom,…

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The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

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Could there be an effort to see that she doesn’t make the final 2? One aspect of the two member surveys that we had overnight is that all the ConHome one was carried out yesterday while the YouGov poll fieldwork started on Friday and went through till yesterday. Given we know that most responses tend to come in during the first period of fieldwork then YouGov was probably more influenced by Friday and Saturday respondents than Sunday and Monday. The…

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Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

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Will we get the same picture from YouGov? ConHome has published the results of a new survey of CON members. This is NOT a proper poll but CONHome can point to how close their member survey was in 2005 getting Cameron’s victory margin almost dead on. The results were:- Leadsom 38% May 37% Gove 13% Crabb 6% Fox 5% Whatever this looks very close between May and Leadsom who between secured 75% of the support. We do know that CON…

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