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Park on Peterborough (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,713 (50% unchanged on last time), Conservative 1,375 (40% +5% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 176 (5% -3% on last time), Liberal Democrat 109 (3% +1% on last time), Green Party 83 (2% -2% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 338 (10%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 2.5% St. Mary’s on Forest Heath (Con defence) Result: Conservative 338 (50% +11% on last time), Labour 276…

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Sturgeon’s party has too many vulnerable seats Ever since it became clear that Mrs. May’s June election gamble had failed and she’d lost her majority there’s been lots of speculation that this parliament will not go through to its full term in June 2022. Maybe but there is the obstacle to surmount of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which was part of the coalition deal in 2010. The days when a PM can pop along to the Palace and call…

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46% want the monarchy to skip a generation We don’t often have Royal Family polling but there is a new ICM survey out in Prospect magazine on what should happen following the Queen’s death. The figures aren’t good for Prince Charles. Just 38% want him to be the successor with 46% going for Prince William. The balance, 16%, declined to back either. To another question on whether the thought of Prince Charles as King made people more or less likely…

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Wikipedia One major political betting market that so far we haven’t covered on PB is the German Federal Election on September 24th. On Betfair this is currently attracting ten times as much bets as the next CON leader. From a British perspective it will determine who will lead the most powerful economy in the EU during the Brexit negotiations. For some reason which I have never been able to fathom the French elections get far more coverage in the UK…

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This morning’s big political news is that the Government is set to announce that petrol and diesel vehicles will no longer be sold in the UK from 2040. It represents a big change but the environmental and health benefits are strong and the change won’t happen for 22 years. Given the parliamentary arithmetic and the overwhelming obsession with BREXIT this has some strong political benefits for ministers. It moves the main talking point on and it looks to have wide…

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Not long now before the big kick-off and I’ve updated my chart showing the referendum vote in the local authority areas where the 20 teams have their grounds. Last season the EPL was spit between 10 REMAIN areas teams and 10 LEAVE ones. The relegation of Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Hull and their replacement by Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield means that the split is now 12-8 to Remain. The pattern is not really surprising given that most of the big clubs…

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And he hadn’t lost an election According to the Indy 15 CON MPs have sent no confidence letter to the the Chair of the 1922 committee. This is part of the party’s formal process for ousting a leader. If 48 such letters are received then there would have to be a confidence vote amongst the parliamentary party. All this is reminiscent of what happened to Iain Duncan Smith in October 2003. Sufficient letters went in and there was a vote…

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