Browsed by
Category: Coalition

New Ashcroft poll of London suggests TMay’s Tories should expect a hammering in May

New Ashcroft poll of London suggests TMay’s Tories should expect a hammering in May

Comments 0 Comment

There’s a new 3,060 sample London poll from Lord Ashcroft in the Evening Standard which points to the blue team facing a struggle in the capital to hold onto to all the council that it runs . Three are highlighted, Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster, as being ones which could fall. The Tories could also struggle in SW London where it is defending Kingston and Richmond from the LDs. As ever there are lots of well-presented tables in the report and…

Read More Read More

Blow for LAB as YouGov finds Corbyn’s approach to Brexit getting just 24% support

Blow for LAB as YouGov finds Corbyn’s approach to Brexit getting just 24% support

Comments 0 Comment

43% of those polled by YouGov say they oppose While all the attention today has been on Theresa Mays big Brexit speech we’ve now got the first polling reaction from YouGov to Mr Corbyn’s statements earlier in the week. Although this was covered widely by the media on Monday the general reaction has been fairly negative for the Labour leader. Just 24% said they support the approach that he is taking with 43% saying they oppose. Significantly just 38% of…

Read More Read More

CORRECTED: The Electoral Reform Society attacks the government’s planned voter ID trials as “unnecessary and over-bearing’’

CORRECTED: The Electoral Reform Society attacks the government’s planned voter ID trials as “unnecessary and over-bearing’’

Comments 0 Comment

Do the figures show that the government has got this wrong? New figures on electoral fraud from the Electoral Commission show the tiny scale of the problem of personation which the ERS says raises major questions about overbearing ID restrictions to be trialed at elections this May, The analysis by the Electoral Commission of votes conducted in 2017 revealed there were just 28 allegations of ‘personation’ in polling stations – where someone is accused of assuming another’s identity to cast…

Read More Read More

Chris Rennard’s “Winning Here” – the requiem for the battered Lib Dems or the handbook for another revival?

Chris Rennard’s “Winning Here” – the requiem for the battered Lib Dems or the handbook for another revival?

Comments 0 Comment

A review of Chris Rennard’s newly published “Winning Here” “ Paddy’s personal ratings were shown to be very high in our poll, even at the outset of the by- election campaign. This helped to persuade him of the validity of the other poll findings.” Thus Chris Renard then the LD director of campaigns and elections coaxed Paddy Ashdown into accepting his formula for winning the 1993 Newbury by-election. The humour and shrewdness about people’s motivation mark this first volume of…

Read More Read More

Hurrah! Our sovereign parliament is taking back control!

Hurrah! Our sovereign parliament is taking back control!

Comments 0 Comment

May should balance one Brexit concession with another This is what Brexit was about: the right of Britain’s democratically elected MPs to take their own decisions free from the interference of Brussels (or, indeed, anybody else). Or perhaps not. Understandably, some pro-Leave MPs are so incandescent at the prospect that the Trade Bill might be amended so as to require “an appropriate authority to take all necessary steps [to conclude a customs union with the EU by Brexit Day]” that…

Read More Read More

There’s greater than a 1.25% chance that Emily Thornberry will be next PM

There’s greater than a 1.25% chance that Emily Thornberry will be next PM

Comments 0 Comment

My little punt this afternoon One of the things about running a site about political betting and being a punter myself is that I like to spend a few minutes each day casting my eye over the markets to see if anything interesting is happening. I’m usually on the lookout for long odds bets where my assessment of the chances of it coming off is better than how the market is pricing it. One such one I took this afternoon….

Read More Read More

Amber Rudd now clear third favourite in the CON leader betting

Amber Rudd now clear third favourite in the CON leader betting

Comments 0 Comment

JRM 18%..Bojo 10%..Rudd 8%..Gove 6%..Hunt & Raab 5%..Davidson & Williamson 3% However you look at the next Conservative leadership betting there’s one thing that is probably not going to happen – that the two men heading the betting at the moment, old Etonians Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, are going to be fighting each other in the membership ballot which, of course, is of the two who top the secret ballot of party MPs. BoJo and Moggsy, I’d suggest will…

Read More Read More

The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

Comments 0 Comment

Council by-election vote share changes with previous winning party: (That UKIP-LDM swing tho…) pic.twitter.com/ENb5KEutC4 — PolitiStatsUK (@PolitiStatsUK) February 10, 2018 I’ve just come across the above chart which shows an interesting picture of vote movements in council by-elections since GE17. Clearly the collapse of UKIP is having a big impact and in almost every segment of seats, based on the defending party, LAB, CON and the LDs have moved forward. What is striking is that in the former UKIP seats…

Read More Read More