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This might easily be an insuperable barrier, even if the PM isn’t Let’s make the heroic assumption that the Tories are brought down in a Vote of No Confidence, Corbyn cannot gather the support to form a government but he reluctantly concedes that if someone else can, on a temporary basis, in order to secure an Article 50 extension and then trigger a general election, Labour will support that. This is, frankly, a long shot. Corbyn has not sounded at…

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Could Trump face a challenge? Generally speaking incumbent presidents tend not to have to face a serious primary challenge when they run for a second term. Certainly that’s been the assumption with Donald Trump and until now the possibility of other challengers has not appeared. That is changing with a prominent former Republican congressman and now a right wing radio host, Joe Walsh, saying that he is seriously considering running against the President. One of the unique features of the…

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Wikipedia The biggest mistake that was made over HS2 was to call it just that. This is why it polls so poorly. It sounds like a vanity project which is exactly what it isn’t. The new line would free up chronic under-capacity on the existing West Coast Main Line including for all the local and commuter services. If this had been billed as “West Coast Mainline upgrade” it wouldn’t have attracted anything like the opposition. So the decision to review…

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The good news Johnson continues with a 42% CON share from Kantar Until today's Kantar poll is broadly supported by other pollsters we should treat it as an outlier pic.twitter.com/j2b5Z1IDnP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2019 More from Kantar Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?Leave No Deal: 23Leave TM Deal: 9Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13Remain/Revoke A50: 33DK: 22 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2019 But voters want the final deal to be put to…

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New @YouGov poll for the Times has little changeCON 30 -1LAB 21 -1LD 20-1BREX 14=GRN+113-14 Aug — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2019 None of the suggested candidates to be temporary PM in a government of national unity are very popular choices with the public:Ken Clarke – 25% good choice for PMHarriet Harman – 19%Jeremy Corbyn – 15%Jo Swinson – 13%Caroline Lucas – 13%https://t.co/ZLU6wG6N8n pic.twitter.com/odT3oThdpB — YouGov (@YouGov) August 20, 2019

Chart of Betfair Exchange from Betdata.io We’ve discussed the timing of the next general election a fair bit on PB and my guess is that we’ll return to it quite often in the next few weeks. It might not be as easy for a general election to be called as many seem to think. For a general election to take place the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it a requirement that two thirds of the entire House of Commons, 433…

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Johnson’s challenge: not triggering off a new round of troubles In a post here last year I highlighted an article by John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former director of political operations, which sought to set out clearly why the Northern Ireland border has been such an issue in the Brexit negotiations. He wrote: “.. there is no concession that can be given on the backstop or, as it should properly be considered, Northern Ireland. The fundamental problem here is not the…

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