In the fight for the Democratic nomination Biden leads the betting with Buttigieg now not far behind
Chart of Betfair exchange price movement from Betdata.io
Tonight’s Andrew Neil-Corbyn interview – this is as tough as it gets
One thing’s for sure: Johnson and Swinson won’t be looking forward to their sessions Jeremy Corbyn just gave one of the worst political performances of modern times. In his interview with Andrew Neil he came across as bored, irritable, ill-informed and unprincipled. It was career-endingly terrible.#andrewneilinterviews#BBCelectionhttps://t.co/SIuMUIyKQ2 — Theodora Dickinson (@TheaDickinson) November 26, 2019 Andrew Neil is brilliant. He makes the useless leaders of all parties squirm. Sturgeon & Corbyn absolutely taken apart. He will exactly the same to Johnson &…
A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG
Survation. on behalf of Good Morning Britain. 18.11.2019 Details and tables here: https://t.co/4TIUmWqHOe pic.twitter.com/1dLh85npjw — Survation. (@Survation) November 18, 2019 Survation adds to the LDs misery A new poll was published by Survation overnight and as can be seen the Lib Dems are the worst hit down 4 points. This means that the last two polls to be published, Deltapoll is the other one, have had very poor news for Jo swinson’s party. Interestingly these two polls have been from…
Throughout the whole of 2019 every time YouGov has asked its Brexit Tracker question voters those polled have said it’s wrong
The GE2019 podcast from Keiran Pedley – now with Ipsos MORI
Keiran Pedley, familiar to PBers through his longstanding PB/PollingMatters podcast series is now doing a general election series for the pollster, Ipsos MORI, with home he works. Each week he’ll inviting a range of figures to add to our understanding of what’s happening. This is the first. I am sure we all wish Kieran the best of luck. Follow @KeiranPedley Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
What might mess up Tory strategy – Brexit is a much much bigger deal for CON voters than LAB ones
Lord Ashcroft polls Why Brexit is much less of an issue for the red team We have covered this before on PB but it is worth looking again given the proximity of the third general election in four and a half years. On the day of GE2017 the CON peer and pollster, Lord Ashcroft, sought to try to establish why people had voted the way they had and carried out a large sample survey. A key question was asking those…
The outstanding question from yesterday: How will CON GE2017 Remainers react to the deal with Farage?
The Farage gamble could come at a price One group of voters who seems to have been by-passed by current events are the 31% of GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain in the referendum. All the focus has been on leavers. The chart above is based on the latest Deltapoll shows their current voting intentions and as can be seen more than two third of them were still backing the party of Johnson. But that fieldwork took place before yesterday’s…
A key GE19 battleground: The GE2017 Tories who voted Remain
How many are ready to back Swinson’s party? One sizeable group of the electorate who could make a difference on December 12th are those who have voted Conservative in the past who at the referendum went for remain. It’s estimated that this segment accounted for more than a quarter of the Conservative vote at the last general election. The question now is whether they will want to continue supporting the party under the management of Boris Johnson which is devoid…