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We are only weeks away from the Iowa caucuses – the first state primary in the prolonged process in which the Democrats will decide who shall be the nominee to fight Trump next November. The latest move from second betting favourite Bernie Sanders (78yo) is to step up the attacks on the front runner Jo Biden (77yo). In an interview with the Washington Post, Bernie sought to undermine what is the ex-VP’s perceived electability. “Sanders said that Biden brings ‘a…

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Those who have followed PB for four years and more will remember some of the tips from Labour insider, Henry G Manson, and I am amongst a number who have benefitted from them. The big news is that Henry G gas resurfaced with this post on the previous thread: Happy New Year. There has been a bit market reaction to the early YouGov poll which has created value elsewhere. At this stage of a leadership contest you have to weigh…

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A guest slot from Fishing 2019 was obviously a very turbulent year in British politics.  Individuals, parties and the political system itself were tested almost to destruction.  But sometimes events that appear a disaster at the time can, with a decade or two’s hindsight, seem like a triumph.  The Conservatives losing the 1945 election, for example, gave the Labour Party the responsibility for post-war austerity and allowed the Tories to regenerate in opposition.  They then dominated the 1950s and early 1960s.  Again, for Labour, 1992…

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With all the focus on the GE2019 aftermath we haven’t paid much attention to what will almost certainly be the biggest political betting event of 2020 – the White House Race. At the moment, five and a half weeks before the Iowa caucuses the main activity has been on the Democratic nomination battle. Iowa is the state that is the first to decide and generally has a big impact on shaping how the race will go in the states that…

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Chart of Betfair exchange price movements from Betdata.io It is now two and a half weeks since Corbyn announced his intention of standing down and although quite a number of names have been mentioned as a possible successors it is Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey who continue to attract the attention of punters. The “race” is expected to start formally next week when the party’s NEC meets and the rules for the contest agreed. A big challenge of all…

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Angela Rayner ‘will endorse’ Long Bailey for Labour leadership https://t.co/uwSUTMhypn — Guardian news (@guardiannews) December 30, 2019 Starmer moves to a 35% chance on Betfair – his highest yet Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Sometimes, it’s apparently minor decisions in politics which can annoy the most.  Here is my list. 1. Lords and Ladies Peerages for Nicky Morgan and Zac Goldsmith but not Ken Clarke. Eh? There are many arguments for having a different second chamber to the current House of Lords but surely, while it exists, those joining it should be politicians with experience and knowledge to contribute. Whether you agree with Clarke’s EU views, he has – since the referendum – played…

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The SNP’s 45% of the Scottish vote gave the party 81% of the Scottish seats One of the features of this month’s general election that hasn’t received much attention is how successful the SNP were in the 59 Scottish sets. For the third general election is succession it was this part of the UK that saw the most change in terms of seats  with on December 12th 15 of the 59 constituencies ending up in different hands. This always looked…

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