Amidst more confusion the Iowa numbers dribble out & Buttigieg moves to a 97% chance on Betfair
This looks like a Pete victory on both delegates and votes
First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead
This appears to be based on the proportion of delegates that were elected. These are provisional and there are others results still to come. The totals are bad on 62% with 38% still to come. The surprise is how poorly Biden has done given he was leading in getting on for half of the final week polls. Mike Smithson
The first state to decide voted but because of a technical cock-up we don’t know who won
Pete Buttigieg is second in the betting For those expecting to wake up to discover who has won the Iowa caucuses then I’m sorry. I stayed up all night and went to bed at 5 a.m. without knowing what had happened. There seems to have been a mess up with communications between the organisers of the 1600+ precinct caucus meetings and the state party HQ. An app that that was supposed to provide fast and accurate results simply failed. So…
If you are betting on the Iowa caucuses be warned – Betfair could be paying out on a different winner than Ladbrokes
The four different ways of determining the results We all know that tonight’s Iowa caucuses are a unique form of election and are highly complicated. That perception could be even more the case tonight when it comes to working out the winner. There are FOUR different “results” that we are likely to hear and each could have a different contender in top place. THE FIRST is the initial count at each caucus centre on which contender those attending and satisfying…
Bernie soars on Betfair after the poll non-release fiasco
Those UK based American political obsessives like me who stayed up till 2 in the morning for the release of the the Des Moines Register Iowa poll went to bed disappointed. There was no poll as the previous post sets out. What happened here we do not know but the fact that the newspaper decided to pull it at the last minute suggests that they and the pollster were aware that what was being complained about might have some foundation….
If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be released
The poll isn't going to get released. Des Moines Register CNN cancels release of Iowa Poll over respondent concerns https://t.co/FdCUVys5Hm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2020 This is from the statement from the paper. The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening. Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the…
Sanders’ odds are far too short for Iowa: no-one should be odds-on
Four or five in the frame and a chaotic process makes it far too hard to call The Iowa caucus is one of those things that no-one in their right mind would invent if it didn’t already exist. As a democratic process, it flouts goodness knows how many rules of good practice, from high barriers to participation to non-secret voting to a lack of consistent process. However, it’s possible to get too precious about process. The caucus does exist and…
The front pages on this historic day
As can be seen the Daily Mirror is the only one which does not have reference to Brexit on its front page. Of course it might be that this is the best call from a news point of view given the potential threat that the flu represents. None of the Brexit related front pages is really very surprising and I doubt if many of them will be referred to much again as we enter into the new relationship with the…