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Today’s polls from the swing states Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen) New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen) New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Lake Research) Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Time) Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA) Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen) Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Lake Resaearch) Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Old Dominion University) Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby) Just a reminder about tomorrow night We are having our third Dirty Dicks gathering…

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The breakdown in the Guardian of tonight’s ICM poll which has the LAB lead down from 10% to 8% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2012 The monthly phone poll from firm “most trusted” by PBers On the economy ICM finds 31% preferring Cameron and Osborne, as against 27% for 2Eds. In Dec 2011 Dave/George had 21% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2012 Among pensioners ICM has CON retaining a 46%-32% lead. With 25-34 age group it’sLAB…

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Which UK political pollster do you trust most? Angus Reid Comres ICM Ipsos-MORI Populus Opinium Survation TNS BMRB YouGov      For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB

The first post-Mitchell resignation poll has 52% saying he should quit as an MP as well twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2012 Amongst the mass of polling overnight for the Sunday papers only one of the surveys, Survation for the Mail on Sunday, was carried out entirely after the Osborne train ticket affair and the resignation of Andrew Mitchell. The voting numbers are bad for for both coalition parties – CON 30/LAB 43/LD 8/UKIP 12. The firm is…

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UPDATED The ITV/Granada picture of George Osborne in 1st class twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 19, 2012 UPDATE – and an hour later Andrew Mitchell resigns The big political story that’s been developing over the past hour or so is that George Osborne was traveling from Wilmslow to Euston this afternoon in the first class carriage when, it is alleged, he only had a standard class ticket. His embarrassment was made worse by the presence in the carriage of…

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Henry G Manson on a potential foreign policy clash There are two issues that could potentially propel the Liberal Democrats from the Coalition. The first is Europe. The second is military conflict with Iran. Both are core issues for the handful of Liberal Democrats I knock about with from time to time. While Cameron should be able to limit the stress and strain Europe plays on his coalition by keeping most of his pledges until after this parliament, Iran is…

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