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Category: Coalition

The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

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By Dr. Rob Ford – University of Manchester As pb.com readers are doubtless aware, the UK Independence Party had their two best ever by-election results in recent weeks – scoring a record 14% in Corby in mid-November, then topping this again with 21% in the Rotherham by-election last week. This sharp rise in support – and the continued polling and by-election misery of the Liberal Democrats – have understandably lead to a lot of discussion. Where is support for UKIP…

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The correlation, or lack, of between Lib Dem seat totals and overall vote share achieved 1987-2010

The correlation, or lack, of between Lib Dem seat totals and overall vote share achieved 1987-2010

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Chart showing how the total of Lib Dem seats has been or not linked to vote share from 1987 – 2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 Tonight I’m off to the Political Studies Association annual awards in London. The next thread header is a detailed analysis on UKIP electoral prospects by Doctor Rob Ford, Politics Lecturer at the University of Manchester. He’s currently working on a book with Matthew Goodwin which looks at support for the BNP…

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Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

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The latest PaddyPower general election outcome prices bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 My July 12/1 with Hills looks even better value Before the summer holidays I got £100 on at 12/1 with William Hill  that the general election would produce another hung parliament but there would be no formal coalition deal. The price has tightened a fair bit since then and the last time it was up on their web-site it was 6/1. I can’t see…

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Labour makes it six out of six in the November by-elections

Labour makes it six out of six in the November by-elections

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As predicted by the betting markets three emphatic wins for LAB in the three by-elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 After the overnight by-elections Ladbrokes make it 2/1 shot that UKIP wins a seat at next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 Ladbrokes is offering 4/1 that UKIP outvotes the Lib Dems at the next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 An okay night for UKIP but still miles…

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Longstanding PBer, John Loony, reports from the front-line in Croydon North

Longstanding PBer, John Loony, reports from the front-line in Croydon North

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Just an hour and a half to go before the polling station close in Croydon North, Rotherham and Middlesborough. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2012 Can Bradford West be repeated in Croydon North? Ever since Lee Jasper was selected as the Respect Party candidate in the Croydon North by-election, there has been a lot of speculation on the internet about the prospects of Respect repeating its triumph of Bradford West, where George Galloway was elected MP in a…

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Leveson set to be the first issue of the 2015 general election campaign

Leveson set to be the first issue of the 2015 general election campaign

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Have Dave, Ed and Nick got their positions right? On a general note I think that the main players over Leveson – Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and the law lord himself – have all acquitted themselves pretty well today. Leveson’s presentation of his proposals makes it much harder for the “no to any statutory measures” lobby even though, ultimately, this is what will be required. Cameron was on pretty fine form and, admirably, was right on top of his brief during…

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The US authorities move in to stop the Irish betting exchange Intrade. US customers are ordered to close their accounts

The US authorities move in to stop the Irish betting exchange Intrade. US customers are ordered to close their accounts

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US authorities take action against Intrade. All US punters ordered to close accounts. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54041 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Where now for the Dublin-based bookie? As I’ve often remarked on PB I’ve found it odd that while Betfair has for years taken large measures to stop any US-based customers from accessing its site and trading on its market the Dublin firm, Intrade, has apparently operated with impunity. During the recent White House race the firm became the…

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