YouGov’s share for UKIP today is 8% – precisely half what TNS BMRB reported yesterday.CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 10%, UKIP 8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2012 Putting the TNS BMRB UKIP 16 percent share into context Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Look what happened in the US last month The #WH2012 exit poll data that should worry LAB. 4 years on Bush was getting the blame for the economy not Obama twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 The latest “blame” polling in the UK The latest polling shows LAB still struggling to shake off being blamed for the current spending cuts. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 Throughout Romney’s abortive bid to become President his…
What will UKIP’s national vote share be at the next general election? 0-3% 4-5% 6-7% 8-9% 10% or more &n bsp; Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
How much does the UK’s Triple-A credit rating matter? The announcement earlier this week from Fitch – one of the three big credit ratings agencies – that the UK’s triple-A credit rating was only just consistent with the government debt levels projected in the Autumn Statement raises again the prospect that at some point soon, one or other of the will cut it. In one sense – the practical matter of borrowing money – such a move probably would make…
What if they fall short of a majority? It’s that time of the year again when Labour MPs wonder out loud how to approach the Liberal Democrats. What might seem irrelevant internal machinations can be revealing and have implications for 2015 in the case of a hung parliament. This week there has been a new grouping created, oddly called Labour for Democracy. It has little to directly do with democracy other than encourage the party to work with other ‘progressive’…
Can George convince us that lower tax rates produce a higher yield. Will the polls turn for the Tories? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2012 When will the Tories get back to their pre-March 2012 budget polling position with ICM – a 3% lead? Before June 30th 2013 Before December 31st 2013 Before June 30th 2014 Before December 31st 2014 Before May 7th 2015 Not until after the general election For me the most signficant feature…
Ed Miliband doesn’t look too pleased with his Shadow Chancellor’s performance twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 His “next chancellor” price moves out to 2/1 The main betting market response to today’s autumn statement has been an easing in the price of Ed Balls in the next chancellor market. Ladbrokes had him as 6/4 favourite which has now moved out to 2/1. Amongst other LAB figures in the betting up and coming 2010 newbie, Rachel Reeves, has moved…
Pie chart showing today’s YouGov poll which has CON just one off its lowest level with pollster twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 Today’s YouGov poll has the Tories down at 30% – just one point above their lowest level yet with the firm and 14% behind Labour. Although it is always dangerous reading too much into one single daily poll this latest finding means that the Labour lead has been at 12 or more in five out…