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Category: Coalition

The revolt of the Shires: Cameron’s last warning

The revolt of the Shires: Cameron’s last warning

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But should UKIP have done even better? Thursday’s elections represented a resounding raspberry to all three main parties.  Indeed, they reinforced that even talking of three main parties is an anachronism.  The Lib Dems did win more than twice as many councillors as UKIP but in all other respects they finished well behind.  In the South Shields by-election, UKIP scored another second place (their fourth in the last five mainland contests) and in the local elections, Nigel Farage’s party came…

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Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street

Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street

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The existing electoral advantages that LAB has are magnified in a 4 party system. Ukip’s rise lowers the bar for EdM twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 The benefits of not having your support evenly spread Just for fun I keyed in the BBC’s projected national vote shares of CON 24, LAB 29, LD 14, Ukip 23 into Martin Baxter seat calculator at ElectoralCalculus. The result was remarkable.LAB was on 324 seats – just two short of an…

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Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time

Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time

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Today sees the sternest test for David Cameron out of any local election he has so far had to face. The 2009 local elections were a complete Conservative triumph. Of the 2,492 councillors elected at those elections, 1,494 (or nearly 60%) were Conservative and apart from Bristol, Cornwall, Cumbria, Northumberland and Anglesey, the Conservatives are defending majority control in every single council up for election (which make the pitfalls even more dangerous). At the time of those local elections, the…

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The Tories deficit in latest ComRes phone poll is down to six percent

The Tories deficit in latest ComRes phone poll is down to six percent

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ComRes phone poll just out has the Tories closing the gap. CON 32%(+4), LAB 38%(nc), LD 9%(-3), UKIP 13(-1). — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2013 The ComRes phone poll for the Indy is one of just three regular telephone surveys that are still being commissioned. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2013 But with YouGov the margin remains 9% The LAB lead remains at 9% in the latest YouGov. CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%. Ukip’ figure…

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With four days to go until LE2013 the Sun turns its fire on Farage and Ukip

With four days to go until LE2013 the Sun turns its fire on Farage and Ukip

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A rare attack on Farage in the Sun -over lack of candidate vetting by UKIP for LE2013 goo.gl/lTPqR twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2013 Maybe they don’t want the Tories too damaged on Thursday? Given the sympathetic coverage that Nigel Farage and the purples have had in the run-up to LE2013 today’s coverage in the Sun about their local candidate selection procedures comes as something of a surprise. The story is over the backgrounds of some of those…

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David Herdson says the LDs will not be able to avoid addressing the GE2015 Mandate question

David Herdson says the LDs will not be able to avoid addressing the GE2015 Mandate question

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If the circumstances required would they go with the winner on votes or seats? Prior to the last general election, Nick Clegg stated that in the event of a hung parliament, “the party which has got the strongest mandate from the British people will have the first right to seek to govern … the votes of the British people are what should determine what happens afterwards.  Whichever party have the strongest mandate from the British people … have the first…

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Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)

Local By-Election Preview : April 25th 2013 (T -7 days and counting until Locals 2013)

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Norden on Rochdale (Con defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 42, Con 13, Lib Dem 5 (Labour overall majority of 24) Last Electoral Cycle (2010 – 2012) Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Name of party Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Con 1,927 36% 1,814 57% 1,624 68% Lab 839 16% 846 27% 604 25% Lib Dems 2,240 42% 511 16% 175 7% BNP 319 6% Candidates…

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A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

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40% of UKIP voters prefer a CON majority Today’s YouGov poll sees an MOE change with LAB is increasing its lead over the Tories by 1%.Nothing much there except that once again EdM’s party is in single figures. Using the interactive chart above you can see how each set of party supporters responded and one that stands out for me is the Ukip split with 40% saying they’d prefer a CON majority. That still, however, leaves 60% not saying that….

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