Henry G Manson looks at a key GE2105 region where the recovery is slower Many ask if ‘the UK economy’ will recover before the general election? One thing that’s struck me in recent weeks is how different parts of the country are already faring quite differently to each other. As a result there is the growing chance that areas like London and the South East pick up by 2015 but that they leave behind large parts of the North and…
< Maps showing the area that Aberdeen, Donside covers (and how it fits into the Westminster Parliament) Aberdeen, Donside is only the seventh constituency by-election to the Scottish Parliament since it was re-founded back in 1999 and in that time only one seat (Ayr in 2000) has changed hands. Aberdeen, Donside itself was only created for the last elections to the Scottish Parliament and is made up of the vast chunk of the Aberdeen North Westminster constituency and a piece...
Who is going to get the chop? With a reshuffle likely in July Justine Greening moves to favourite slot at Ladbrokes for next cabinet exit. pic.twitter.com/OqdpzI8Hl1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 17, 2013 If more than one cabinet leaves on the same Ladbrokes operate their dead heat rules. Thus if three of the 23 members settlement would be based on a third of your stake at the odds that you originally got. The art here is to spot a long…
He suggests LAB would go for minority government if it fell short Last July I got a three figure sum on at Hills at 12/1 that GE2015 could produce another hung parliament but the largest party would would try to govern on its own without a coalition. My argument at the time was that I cannot see either the Tories or the Lib Dems wanting to enter into another coalition because there’s too much bad blood on both sides. My…
Will 2015 be more like 1983 or 1997? Since speculation of a triple-dip recession was put onto the backburner with the modest growth recorded in the first quarter of the year, the preponderance of the economic stats have pointed to the embedding of a steady, if unspectacular, recovery. The employment figures this last week were as good an example as any: jobs were up, unemployment was down and earnings are still failing to maintain pace with prices. To some extent,…
Henry G Manson on the impact of waiting till May 2015 I’m not a big fan of fixed terms, but what stuck me at the start of the Coalition was how little debate there was about the length of fixed term that was being proposed. The majority of fixed term governments are run on a 4 year cycle, yet the Coalition were determined to lock in 5 years of government. This in itself will pose challenges for all parties. From…
Suddenly it is all change at the top in the next CON leader betting By far the best Theresa May bet is the 16/1 from Hills that she’ll be next PM. I’ve just had a punt.bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013 The Telegraph story that prompted the betting changes for next CON leader. goo.gl/eUePq twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013 Theresa May 4/1 edges Boris 5/1 out of favourite slot for next CON leader. Hague, Hammond…
@msmithsonpb Surprising that Labour are doing so well in the opinion polls if many still blame them for the economic situation. — Stephen Hopkins (@StephenHopkin11) June 9, 2013 Surely non-voting findings are “priced in”? Above is an exchange I had on Twitter pointing up one of the main characteristics of current polling – the gap between what people are saying when asked how they will vote and their responses to specific points like the Brown still being blamed one. It…