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Category: Coalition

Labour continues to lose the economy blame game: EdM needs a new Shadow Chancellor

Labour continues to lose the economy blame game: EdM needs a new Shadow Chancellor

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It’s now two and a half years since Ed Balls became shadow chancellor and, as the chart above shows, there’s been very little change in public perceptions over who is to blame for the cuts. The charge that it’s “Labour’s fault” continues to resonate. We see it time and time again whenever coalition ministers respond to criticism of their policies for the deficit. Everything is justified because of what they inherited from the last LAB government – an assertion that…

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The value bet on the CON poll progress is the 6-1 that they they’ll top the poll in next year’s Euros

The value bet on the CON poll progress is the 6-1 that they they’ll top the poll in next year’s Euros

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UKIP still odds on favourite to win most votes in next May's EU elections pic.twitter.com/XgrwyLktDC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2013 UKIP could have peaked a year too early It has almost been taken as read amongst the commentariat that UKIP will come top on votes in next year’s EU parliament elections. The result is that in the betting Farage’s party remains odds on favourite to do it. Yet another set of local by-elections overnight suggests that the fizz…

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Advance notice: A PB event in Yorkshire July 2014

Advance notice: A PB event in Yorkshire July 2014

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David Herdson and I plan to host a PB event in Yorkshire in July next year and we wanted to sound out opinion to see if this would be popular. I’m going to be on holiday in the county for the Tour de France which has two Yorkshire stages on July 5th and 6th. David and I thought that a gathering in the evening on July 7th or 8th might be a good idea. The suggested location would be Ilkley….

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The great GE2015 argument goes on

The great GE2015 argument goes on

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The money's going on a CON majority on Betfair GE2015 outcome marker Was 20% chance 2 wks ago – now 24.4% See table pic.twitter.com/eMfzD6NQ0x — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2013 Electoral Calculus puts the chances of a CON majority at 3% http://t.co/jpwf0LYPCV Betfair punters make it 24% pic.twitter.com/rzfVy3pp9o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2013

PR without a ratifying referendum – the price for a second LD-CON coalition?

PR without a ratifying referendum – the price for a second LD-CON coalition?

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Would the blues stomach such a demand? With the Tories making progress in the polls and the expectation of a UKIP bonus once support for the purples has eased off is leading all the parties to consider what would happen in the event of another hung parliament. A continuation, if the post election mathematics permitted, of the current Blue – Yellow agreement is going to be a lot harder for both Nick and Dave, to sell to their parties. A…

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How do the Tories balance their electoral coalition?

How do the Tories balance their electoral coalition?

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Is the immigration debate symptomatic of a larger problem? The furore that has blown up among those who’ve noticed the two news stories connected to immigration this week is a good example of the problems the Conservatives face in winning an outright majority at the next election. On one level, the challenge is not too difficult, despite the boundary review not being completed.  If the economy continues to recover, with either living standards improving or at least the prospect of…

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Survation poll finds strong support for keeping East Coast main line in public sector

Survation poll finds strong support for keeping East Coast main line in public sector

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By 58% to 21% those sampled in new Survation poll want the East Coast main line to stay in public ownership pic.twitter.com/aDF8XhuJuw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2013 The poll gave two options is this form:- The East Coast Main Line should remain in public ownership, as it is now better run than it was when privatised and is returning profits to the Treasury The East Coast Main Line should now go back to being privatised like other rail…

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The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impact on the “best party on NHS” ratings

The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impact on the “best party on NHS” ratings

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LAB YouGov lead as best party on NHS remains at 12% pic.twitter.com/wzwuLsixfe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 One of the big apparent “wins” for the Tories before they broke up for the summer recess was their response on the Keogh report on hospital failings which had happened on Labour’s watch. This it was hoped would help the party eat into the traditional LAB lead that they have on the NHS. The CON attack was high octane and certainly…

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