YouGov polling showing a divide on immigration as an iissue between country and your family pic.twitter.com/6Wx49HUE8n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 30, 2014 Which is more important electorally: country or family?
http://t.co/pBkzxMviTW pic.twitter.com/uaMWjpAiOY — PolPics (@PolPics) January 27, 2014 I’ve just been on Radio 4’s the World at One talking about the polling on the 50% tax rate and Labour on the economy. I’ll post a link when it become avaiable. The Tory attacks have been long and strong and, no doubt, this will be one of the big battles at GE2015 but just how important is managing the economy? To my mind this from the recent Lord Ashcroft poll sets…
Motherwell North on North Lanarkshire (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 1,719 (68% unchanged on 2012), SNP 520 (21% -4% on 2012), Con 173 (7% +2% on 2012), UKIP 107 (4% no candidate in 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,199 (47%) on a swing of 2% from SNP to Lab West Leigh on Southend on Sea (Con Defence) Result: (Changes since 2011, when retiring councillor was last elected) Con 743 (37% -13% on 2011), Lib Dem 688 (34% +1% on…
It’s the Demography, Stupid. The next General Election is a year and a half away, and it’s going to be interesting (as all elections are for gamblers). Labour currently have a consistent polling share which suggests a Labour majority, if they maintain it. But for predictive purposes, it’s interesting to look in some detail at who will actually decide the next election – Everyone, of course, but realistically the voters in the most marginal seats. Who are they, where are…
Lots of talk tonight about Portsmouth South. This is what happened at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/2J7dmAzNbF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @robfordmancs LD organisation in Portsmouth S even stronger than Eastleigh. This is about data & skilled foot soldiers — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Interesting – thanks Mike. Could be a crucial test of the power of local LD machines to hold back the tide, then. — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Yes, would…
Jessica Lee MP steps down: 11 per cent of Tory women elected in 2010 have decided to leave Parliament http://t.co/ksnr5xNqYQ — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 21, 2014 This looks problematic for the Tories The percentages in the CONHome article look quite stark particularly as this comes a week when women in politics have been under the spotlight. The fact that it refers just four puts it into a slightly different context. Clearly the reality of becoming an MP has not…
Nigel, Nick and Ed are all seen less favourably than theirs A very big part of US polling that we see rarely in the UK are favourability ratings. Questioning such as “Do you have a favourable/unfavourable view of Obama/Democrats/Congress/ etc” have been part and parcel of US polling data for years. Yet surprisingly we rarely see such numbers in the UK. This weekend the ComRes online poll did ask these questions of the four party leaders and their parties and…
But YouGov’s 8% for the LDs signals problems over Rennard Very irritatingly Opinium don’t publish their full dataset until after the weekend so we have yet to see the firm’s fortnightly leader approval ratings and a Euro election poll that they carried out. Almost all the other firms, bar ICM, now have near instantaneous publication of the detailed data as soon as headline numbers are released. Opinium should get their act together. They are the only firm to carry out…