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The classic Con/Lab voter has gone the way of the Con/Lab system Once upon a time, most people voted at general elections and nearly everyone that did voted Conservative or Labour.  And thus the key swing vote was born: those persuadable voters in marginal constituencies.  Win them and you win the election. Then it became far more complicated.  The rise of the Liberals, the Scots and Welsh Nationalists and more recently a plethora of other parties – combined with a…

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Betws yn Rhos on Conwy (Non Party Independent defence) Result: Independent (Lloyd) 347 (46%), Plaid Cymru 197 (26% -2%), Independent (Evans) 127 (17%), Conservative 83 (11%) Independent WIN with a majority of 150 (20%) (The total Independent vote was 474 (63%) down 9% on 2012, therefore there was a swing of 3.5% from Ind to Plaid) Arbourthorne on Sheffield (Lab Defence, last elected in 2012) Result: Lab 1,398 (52% -15% on 2012), UKIP 482 (18% +2% on 2012), Con 213…

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Counting the votes pic.twitter.com/jyd5QR07yQ — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2014 Betws yn Rhos on Conwy (Non Party Independent Defence) Result of last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 11) Result of ward at last election (2012): Non Party Independent 340 (43%), Plaid Cymru 219 (28%), Independent 167 (21%), Independent 40 (5%), Independent 18 (2%) * Total Independent vote: 565 (72%) Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Evans (Independent),…

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Ipsos-MORI February 2014 pic.twitter.com/ubIv7VrwO7 — PolPics (@PolPics) February 6, 2014 Ipsos-MORI chart showing sharp rise in economic optimism pic.twitter.com/yoYYPtNYEf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014 Table showing latest Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings for the 4 leaders pic.twitter.com/BMf8Hrr9NL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014

It is a brave man who fifteen months before a general election seeks to predict the outcome in all the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending but that is what Ian Dale has done this morning. It provoked quite a discussion on Twitter and I thought that PBers might like to cast their eyes over it and give their verdicts. To my mind the element that Iain has not factored in is the organisational state of the local LD…

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It could be earlier if there’s a post EURO2014 nervous breakdown The publication of the latest CONHome survey on preferred next party leader is a timely reminder that we could be just 15 months away from a vacancy occurring. One thing that we know about the Conservative party is that it is pretty unsentimental when it comes to failing/failed leaders. If Dave doesn’t manage to bring home the goods on May 7th 2015 then it’s hard to see him lasting…

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Today's ICM/S Telegraph Wisdom Index sees LAB extend lead from 1.1% in Sept 2013 to 2.3% in poll in which respondents estimate GE shares — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014 Latest ICM Wisdom Index in which respondees are asked to predict party shares for GE2015 has CON 31.1 LAB 33.4 LD 15.8 UKIP 11.7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014 By 49% to 30% ICM finds backing for LAB plan to increase tax on high earners — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1,…

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Heanor East on Amber Valley (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 548 votes (59% +6% on 2012) Conservative 350 votes (37% +12% on 2012) Liberal Democrat 41 (4% unchanged on 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 198 (22%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 3% Chadsmead on Lichfield (Con Defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 206 votes  (36%), Labour 157 votes (27%) United Kingdom Independence Party 108 votes (19%) Conservative 102 votes (18%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 49 (9%) Buckie…

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