What can stop Labour’s cruise to victory? To say there’s been no movement in the opinion polls over the last two years would be untrue. Most obviously, UKIP’s average share doubled between early 2012 and the time of last year’s local elections, pushing the Lib Dems into a regular fourth, which remains the case despite a slight drop off for the Purples. There’s also been a small narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives, but at a glacial…
May 11 2010 The Tories hadn’t won & there was need for Brown to step aside I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed to win a majority and there was no obligation on him to go to the palace and recommend to the Queen that Cameron should be invited to form a government. It is this central constitional fact that the “Dave should have gone…
At one stage the gap was 30% One of the non-voting trackers that I’ve been monitoring closely since the coalition was formed in May 2010 has been the above one from YouGov on who is to blame for the cuts. For nearly four years whenever this question has beens asked at least twice a months and every poll has found the last LAB government getting the blame sometimes by big margins. In the early days the proportion of those blaming…
@MSmithsonPB @LordAshcroft Interesting that public opinion split into three almost equal chunks: Lab, Con, Coalition — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) February 25, 2014
Cameron’s GE2015 gamble – a CON majority or bust The big GE2015 development overnight is the Telegraph story that the Tories are planning to go into the election with a manifesto commitment not to enter a coalition deal. If the party won most seats but fell short of the threshold of 326 MPs it would seek to govern on its own as a minority. Clearly everything depends on the numbers but it’s hard to see a minority CON government winning…
2010 debate pic.twitter.com/CSoY1dvIbZ — PolPics (@PolPics) February 22, 2014 To start with the relatively easy bit: any debates taking place within the election period would be subject to OFCOM’s broadcasting code. Well mostly. In the interests of full accuracy this part of the code (primarily section 6) “does not apply to BBC services funded by the licence fee, which are regulated on these matters by the BBC trustâ€. Since any debates are likely to be (as last time) a joint effort…
David Herdson on the battle for the minor European election placings Fourth is, according to Olympic pundits, the cruellest finishing position. I don’t buy it. Who’d rather finish fifth or sixth than fourth, or, looking at it the other way, who enters a competition to finish third? Higher is better, first is best and last is worst. Understandably, most of the coverage of the European elections has focussed on the front of the field: who’ll take first place, where Labour…
Canton on Cardiff (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 1,201 (42% -9%), Plaid 972 (34% +14%), Con 381 (13% +2%), Green 148 (5% -9%), TUSC 101 (4% +3%), Lib Dem 80 (3% +1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 229 (8%) on a swing from Lab to Plaid of 11.5% Birstall, Wanlip on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result: Lib Dem 508 (40%), Con 419 (33%), Lab 355 (28%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 89 (7%)