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Thanks to Sunil for painstakingly putting together the data that makes up the latest PB interactive chart. This shows the breakdown of aggregate votes secured by the parties in Westminster by-elections starting with the first, Oldham East & Saddleworth, in 2011. Interestingly, in terms of vote losses, the Tories have done worse than the Lib Dems who on this analysis are doing better overall in these elections than the polls. The Tories and Labour, by contrast, have performed worse. Labour…

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Less than 11 weeks to the Euro Elections & the polling famine continues http://t.co/1zRdXoPOYi pic.twitter.com/s9gVdqwKxS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2014 Why are these not being commissioned? Above is the latest European Elections polling table from Anthony Wells’s UK Polling report showing just three surveys this year the last one being the ICM for the Guardian a month ago. Compare that with the number of polls that we get for the next time UK general election which takes place in…

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Wye on Ashford (Conservative Defence) Result: Ashford Independent 323 (43% +11%), Conservative 240 (32% -7%), UKIP 97 (13% +3%), Green 55 (7%), Labour 22 (3% -8%), Liberal Democrat 13 (2% -7%) Ashford Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 83 (11%) on a swing of 9% from Conservative to Ashford Independent Ramsbottom on Bury (Labour Defence) Result: Conservative 1,398 (47% unchanged on 2011), Labour 1,033 (35% -12% on 2011), UKIP 351 (12%), Green 157 (5%), Liberal Democrat 38 (1%…

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Wye on Ashford (Conservative Defence) Last election to council (2011): Conservatives 30, Independents 6, Labour 5, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 17) Last election in ward (2011): Conservative 392 (39%), Ashford Independent 318 (32%), Labour 112 (11%), United Kingdom Independence Party 97 (10%), Liberal Democrats 89 (9%). Conservative GAIN from Ashford Independent with a majority of 74 (7%) Candidates duly nominated: Ken Blanshard (Lib Dem), Ian Cooling (Con), Elaine Evans (UKIP), Dylan Jones (Lab), Geoff Meaden (Green), Noel Ovenden…

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A bit of a narrative seems developing about the rise of UKIP which is said to hurting Labour more than the Tories. This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party. That might indeed be true but were these Labour supporters in the first place? The chart above, from the Populus/FT aggregate data for February, shows computations that I’ve and as can be seen…

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So the Farage – Clegg one to one is fixed for BBC 2 pic.twitter.com/7JJkHHcHPz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 This should liven up the Euros It’s good news for all who want a high turnout in the May Euro elections that the Farage versus Clegg national TV debate is actually on. The BBC will be staging it on BBC 2. It will last an hour. For both leaders the mere fact that this is taking place is a…

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The voting detail from latest ComRes phone poll that will be released tonight pic.twitter.com/jHNx9bg3Zk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2014 This looks like CON 29/LAB 37/LD 10/UKIP 11 Frustratingly the Indy is releasing its monthly ComRes phone poll in parts and we don’t have the voting intention numbers yet. Given the cost of carrying out phone polls this is understandable but we’d all love to see the actual numbers. What we do have is part of the data which…

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