LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget
At last for LAB a poll with a lead bigger than 1 After three online pollsters had reported LAB leads down to just one percent there’ll perhaps be some relief at Miliband HQ that tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the margin down to 5% But the trend is the same. In February the gap was 8%. Asked which of the two biggest parties was most likely to keep the economy growing, 47% say CON and 36% LAB….
Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness
Far more CON votes are wasted where it doesn’t matter The “boundaries” has become a misleading shorthand to describe the challenge the Tories face with the way the general election electoral system operates under first past the post. The above three part interactive chart presents different elements where LAB has an inbuilt advantage. Firstly, from the GE2010 outcome we see that a much higher proportion of the blue vote gets wasted in seats won by 3rd parties Secondly we see…
The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015
There’s a little debate going on within the LDs over whether Vince Cable or Danny Alexander should by the party’s “shadow chancellor” at GE 2015. Both are cabinet ministers – Alexander is chief secretary to Treasury while Cable is the business secretary. My old Oxford colleague and leading Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, is arguing the case for Cable while others in the party say it should be Alexander. The latter are right for four main reasons:- First the yellows…
A timely reminder from Populus of how little most people follow political events
Case study this week’s Budget Great info from @PopulusPolls on what people recall was in the budget pic.twitter.com/MHD11Jq7xq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2014 I like this chart because it reinforces a point that I make a lot – that most voters pay little attention to politics even big events like this week’s budget. There was wall-to-wall TV coverage on the day followed by extensive reports and analysis in the bulletins. In the Thursday papers seven of the nationals splashed…
YouGov finds 66 percent backing Osborne’s budget but LAB’s 5pc lead remains
Times fromt page story on polling reaction to the budget pic.twitter.com/tvFnasDwtE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2014 Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll, the first to be carried out wholly after the budget has CON 34 LAB 39 LD 10 UKIP 10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Voters might have already made their minds up about GE2015 and there’ll be little shifting As can be seen from the Times front page the first Budget polling by YouGov finds strong support from voters for the…
Local By-Election Preview: March 20th 2014
Wroxham on Broadland (Liberal Democrat defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 21) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 985, 829 Conservatives 741, 537 Labour 227 Greens 197 Candidates duly nominated: Alex Cassam (Lib Dem), Malcolm Kemp (Lab), David Moreland (UKIP), Fran Whymark (Con) Gamston on Rushcliffe (Conservative defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 6, Labour 5, Independents 3, Green 2…
Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT
The Mail front page dominated by the budget pic.twitter.com/12d4hmPeqK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Time to be putting more money on the blues winning the Euros Downing Street will be delighted with the coverage that Osborne’s budget is getting in the papers this morning and my view is that we could start to see a change in the media narrative. Suddenly the pressure that the savings changes put on the UKIP switchers will be become the story and…