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There’s a big expectation that by the time we get to GE2015 many of those ex-CON voters now saying UKIP will, when push comes to shove, return to the blue fold. I buy into that. We see in weekly round of local by-elections that the purples are chalking up big vote shares in wards where they don’t impact on the outcome, notably though not exclusively, in LAB heartlands. Last Thursday, for instance, they achieved 28% in Sunderland. But looking at…

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The March projection from Electoral Calculus is for LAB majority of 40 pic.twitter.com/cX2NETOxN5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2014 At the start of 2014 it was 78 seats Martin Baxter, the City mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus for nearly two decades, has put out his latest monthly projection and once again there is a decline in the projected LAB majority. Martin computes the figure by applying his own polling average to his Commons Seats calculator. Inevitably the…

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FPTP is no longer in either the country’s or the Conservatives’ interests It is unusual for governments to schedule and highlight their splits in advance.  However, three years ago, the Coalition launched into a bout of premeditated infighting from which it has never really recovered.  It was entirely unnecessary on any number of levels.  The event was of course the AV referendum. Why was it unnecessary?  Because it was obvious that the result would prompt recrimination and bitterness on whichever…

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Stone on Dartford (Labour Defence) Result: Lab 426 (38%), Con 397 (35%), UKIP 307 (27%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 29 (3%) Kilmarnock North on East Ayrshire (Scottish National Party defence) First Preferences Result: SNP 1,334 (45% -8%), Lab 1,130 (38% +2%), Con 430 (15% +4%), Green 61 (2%) Scottish National Party HOLD (elected on the fourth count) on a swing of 5% from SNP to Labour St. John’s on Fylde (Independent defence) Result: Flyde Ratepayers 804 (66%), Con…

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Stone on Dartford (Labour Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 31, Labour 9, Independents 4 (Conservative majority of 18) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 713, 588, 544 Labour 642, 609, 560 English Democrats 192 Candidates duly nominated: Jim Moore (UKIP), Catherine Stafford (Lab), Stephanie Thredgle (Con) Kilmarnock North on East Ayrshire (Scottish National Party defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Labour 14, Conservatives 2, Independent…

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UKIP,Farage still making progress. Without a deal Cameron will be dead meat after 2015 elections. Prepare for Radical Labour. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) March 27, 2014 It’s hard to argue with his reasoning This is where the current UKIP vote is coming from. The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense. UKIP hurts the Tories far more than any other party as can be seen from the chart based on the…

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