politicalbetting.com

Farage pic.twitter.com/iqy9GrZpNB — PolPics (@PolPics) May 2, 2014 But the seat provides challenges for all parties To be damned if they do and damned if they don’t is the lot of politicians.  Whatever decisions they take (or don’t take), one side or another will criticise them.  To that end, Nigel Farage’s choice to opt out of the Newark by-election will be castigated by some as defeatist at a time when his party is surging in the polls.  Had he taken…

Read More Read More

Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result: Ind 932 (39% -40%), SNP 726 (30% +15%), NPI 537 (22% +20%), UKIP 133 (6%), Scottish Christian Party 63 (3% +1%) Total Independent vote: 1,469 (61% -18%) Independent HOLD on the fourth count on a swing of 17% from Ind to SNP Turnout: 34.4%

Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independent 33, SNP 22, Liberal Democrat 15, Labour 8, Non Party Independent 2 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 905, 710, 506, 71 (79%) Scottish National Party 411 (15%) Conservatives 66 (2%) Non Party Independent 60 (2%) Scottish Christian Party 45 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: William MacDonald (SNP), Liam Simmonds (UKIP), Ben Thompson…

Read More Read More

Pollsters should start including it in their Euro2014 prompts Ukip is surging in the polls and, if the latest numbers are a good indication, look set to pull off a sensational result on May 22nd. So far, however, the pollsters have yet to catch up with the possible impact of the party formed by the ex-Ukip deputy leader, Mike Nattrass, which will appear at or near the top, of every ballot paper in England under the name “An Independence from…

Read More Read More

Participants were asked were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with two statements:- “I would vote for Nigel Farage if he was standing in my constituency” (%) “Nigel Farage chose not to stand in Newark primarily because he is scared of losing” (%) The poll, for HuffPost is another example of how Survation is fast establishing a reputation as the most agile pollster. Yet again it has got right on top of issues by putting together, carriying out the fieldwork,…

Read More Read More

Election analysis by Corporeal The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline. Or at least it has been, the most recent opinion poll ratings suggest that this trend will be broken with a sharp jump upwards (I’ve used…

Read More Read More

"@MSmithsonPB Judging by S Times front page it looks a though its YouGov poll has UKIP in lead for Euros. pic.twitter.com/e8BAAmgzCO — Europarl2014 (@2014Europarl) April 26, 2014 LAB-2, 28, UKIP+4, 31 CON-3, 19 LD-1, 9 OTH+2, 13

LAB 34-2: CON 32+2: LD7=: UKIP 18= After yesterday’s Populus poll which had both CON and LAB on 35% each the latest online poll from Opinium for the Observer sees a change from a 6% lead to a 2% one in the past fortnight. This is all within the standard margin of error and the usual caveats apply. Opinium is unusual in that it is the only online pollster that doesn’t past vote weight or use some other mechanism to…

Read More Read More