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Now, I know there is the small matter of a massive football competition happening in Brazil over the next few weeks which will (according to Bloomberg television) attract some $5 billion worth of bets during the competition, but let’s not forget that with the Liberal Democrats on 6% of the vote in some polls and UKIP’s leader declaring over £200,000 worth of gifts in the last ten years, British politics and it’s elections will still carry on regardless so with…

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There are two issues with this poll which make it stand it: the closeness of the outcome compared with other recent surveys and the Cameron question. The main finding with changes on last time:- YES 39 (+2) NO 44 (-3) DK 17 (NC) Without DKs YES 47 NO 53 This is one of the closest margins yet in any poll and is very much against the run of other recent polling. It will certainly give the YES campaign a boost…

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The contest that could be coming up to fill Lansley’s seat? In February I was the first to tip the ex-health secretary and now leader of the House, Andrew Lansley, as the next UK commissioner in Brussels. I got on at 16/1 and since the price tightened to him being an odds-on favourite. Now the bookies are not taking bets for it’s been informally announced that Lansley’s the man and he has even spoken publicly about it. The winnings I…

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This is a big blow to Boris It’s hard to see why there’s been such movement in the ConHome regular survey of party members’ views on who should be Dave’s successor. Maybe the rise of UKIP is polarising views in many less connected segments. One thing that strikes me is that with all the focus on the May 22nd elections and their aftermath Boris hasn’t been making the headlines in the way that he was. Best price on Theresa is…

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It’s not all rosy for the purple team The pollster that came top in the EP14 polling accuracy table, YouGov, has issued comparative data about whether people feel positive or negative about UKIP compared with five years ago when they beat LAB for 2nd place in the Euro elections. The data is in the chart and probably reflects that voters are now treating UKIP a lot more seriously than they were five years ago. We’ve seen this trend in other…

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UPDATE “Spiral of Silence adjustment gives 4% boost to CON lead With just three days to go the Lord Ashcroft Newark poll is out and has the Tories with a comfortable margin. The figures are in the chart about together with the changes on GE10. This look very easy for the blues although the poll paints a very different picture from the Survation Sun survey on Friday. Which one’s right? But bad news for the blues in latest Ashcroft national…

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