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Category: By elections

Could Henley be a tipping point like Bradford?

Could Henley be a tipping point like Bradford?

Revised Could a collapse on this scale seal Gordon’s fate? I’ve just had a long phone call with my closest Labour party link and he was suggesting that Henley could have the same impact on Gordon Brown’s leadership as the reverberations within the Tory party from the Bradford North by election in November 1990. It was this result – a 16% CON>LAB swing – that provided the backcloth for the dramatic events that month that eventually led to Maggie’s departure….

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Will Gord’s second year start with a lost deposit?

Will Gord’s second year start with a lost deposit?

The money goes on a poor Henley performance Given that this is the final Sunday before the Henley by election the only active market on Thursday’s outcome has been on whether Labour will lose its deposit. The chart shows the betting odds expressed as an implied probability. The day started with the price at 1/2, then the market was suspended only to be re-opened an hour or so later at 2/5 and then to tighten further to 1/3 by the…

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Should men be careful before commenting on this?

Should men be careful before commenting on this?

Has the Culture secretary touched a raw nerve over Shami? The most striking thing about the Burnham-Davis-Shami Chakrabarti row is that it has opened up what appears to be a massive gender divide. Women seem to be judging the culture secretary’s comments much more severely than men and it appears to have struck a real chord with many of them. This has become an area of debate into which male politicians and commentators should enter only at their peril. Leaving…

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Voters give Labour’s H&H decision the thumbs down

Voters give Labour’s H&H decision the thumbs down

YouGov finds strong public backing Davis to face a Labour challenge The above is an extract from a YouGov poll carried out for ConHome which sought to test opinion on whether Labour should put up a challenge in Haltemprice & Howden where the former Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, is fighting a by election over the 42 day detention issue. As can be seen those in the poll split 51% to 24% in favour of Labour putting up a candidate….

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What if Labour’s Henley vote drops to these levels?

What if Labour’s Henley vote drops to these levels?

Will a lost deposit be what next Thursday is remembered for? At the PB party last night I was repeatedly asked about Ladbrokes’s market on whether Labour will lose its deposit in the Henley by election next Thursday. The price has now tightened to 8/13 and even at that level I think it is a good bet. Over the years the Labour has been squeezed dramatically in by-elections that have been seen as a straight Conservative-Lib Dem fight. In 1993,…

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Is this what’s behind the Henley betting changes?

Is this what’s behind the Henley betting changes?

What have the Lib Dems got up their sleeves? Anybody who has been following the Henley betting during the day will know that there was a big move to the Lib Dems from mid-afternoon. As I write the best back price on Betfair is 5/1. It looks as though the changes are linked to the above email which went out to Lib Dem members asking for their help for a special constituency-wide delivery tomorrow. I have no idea what’s in…

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Is Labour right not to fight the by-election?

Is Labour right not to fight the by-election?

Have minister judged the public mood correctly? Shortly after David Davis formally resigned this morning the Labour party confirmed that it would not be putting up a candidate in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. The decision was not unexpected particularly as the Labour PPC in the constituency is, or was, an opponent of his party’s 42 day detention without trial plan. It also avoids the embarrassment of having to deal with rebel Labour MPs who have said they will be…

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Could low turnout turn Henley into another Bromley?

Could low turnout turn Henley into another Bromley?

Is my 20/1 bet on the Lib Dems good value? With all the focus on David Davis not much attention is being given to Henley a week on Thursday where the Tories are hoping to hold Boris Johnson’s old seat by a reasonable margin. The betting has reflected the general view that the Tories are a near certainty. The best you can get from a traditional bookie is 1/25. They are offering just 7/1 on the Lib Dems which is…

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