But will the polls be as wrong as they were in Glasgow East? A night of four polls all doing very different things has been finalised with an ICM survey in Glenrothes, scene of the upcoming by-election, which suggests that Labour is in for a hard fight. In the seat that adjoins Brown’s and where the party had a 10,600 majority at the general election ICM found that both Labour and the SNP were on 43% each. That’s fine except…
Does Brown really have a chance of saving the day? There’s an interesting piece by Kevin Maguire of the Mirror quoting an as yet to be published article by Peter Kellner of YouGov suggesting that Labour might still have a chance. The arguments are ones we have seen before – governments, it is said recover from mid-term lows and we all know that the Tories need a vote margin of 6% just to be equal on seats and a 10%…
Does Labour’s candidate choice make it that more personal? Given Labour’s by election record and the terrible poll ratings then as soon as the news came of the the death of John MacDougall, MP for Glenrothes, the assumption has been that this will be the party’s third loss in Scotland of the four Westminster seats it has defended since the last general election. For after seeing a thirteen-and-a-half thousand vote majority overturned in Glasgow East in July, the real surprise…
Is this the way to minimise another humiliating defeat? Â The Guardian writer Martin Kettle is one of many commentators to say that the timing of the Glenrothes by-election would be a major factor in determining whether or not Brown lives to fight another day. Since the death of John MacDougall, the Labour majority of 10,664 has been assessed and found to be unsafe in the face of the likely challenge of the SNP. It requires a smaller swing than…
The PB community wins the battle of the predictors Above are the final predictions from Wednesday’s PB online poll on who we thought would win Glasgow East and the Politics Home panel of 100 “insiders” and “experts”. Notice anything? Without crowing (well only a little bit) this was an overwhelming victory for the site over the PH100 which very much represents received opinion. We can feel proud this morning. Mike Smithson
Was it their “17% Labour margin” that made the SNP prices attractive? Yet again an election has shown the pollsters up and reinforced my default position when assessing all voting intention surveys – “always assume that Labour is being overstated“. The whole atmosphere in the lead up to yesterday’s Glasgow East by election was affected by the Scottish Progressive Opinion survey that had Labour 17% ahead. I was highly sceptical about their methods right from the start and it was…
How the PB community split at 2.15 am I’m not normally a great fan of instant online quickie polls like the one we did yesterday on people’s forecasts for today’s Glasgow East by-election. Those who take part are self-selecting and the technical savvy could vote more than once. Yet the result that’s come out totally reflects my own view of what will happen today. This is a 50-50 shot even though the betting markets make Labour the 0.31/1 odds-on favourite….
What happens when the third party works – but doesn’t win? A strongly argued post by the Norfolk Blogger, Nick Starling, has been picked up by several in the blogsphere for the way it powerfully sets out the dilemma facing the Lib Dems. Reflecting on the massive changes in the political scene Nick notes that Cameron has “turned around the fortunes of the Conservative “brand”, removed the tarnish from it and has stopped people feeling embarrassed to be openly Tory….