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Category: By elections

Does this sad news make an early election more likely?

Does this sad news make an early election more likely?

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Leicester Mercury Will Labour want to avoid the by election? My apologies for immediately thinking of the political implications of the death yesterday of Leicester NW, MP, David Taylor, but that is the way politics is especially during a febrile period like that we are going through at the moment. Fo the last thing that Labour needs just now is a by election in a marginal where the Tories are the main challengers – and this could become a consideration…

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Should Mr. Brown look back over the C&N numbers?

Should Mr. Brown look back over the C&N numbers?

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By-elections.co.uk CON 20,539 votes (14,162) LAB 12,679 votes (21,240) LD 6,040 votes (8,083) The contest, held on 22 May 2008, was the first seat gained by the Tories in a by election since June 1982. The turnout was just 1.8% down on what it had been at the general election. Mike Smithson

Two polls, same timing, different outcomes. Eh?

Two polls, same timing, different outcomes. Eh?

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How can we explain both MORI and ICM? One thing you must not do, when you see a shock polling outcome such as the survey for by MORI for the Observer this morning, is immediately to conclude that it must be a rogue or an outlier. The fact is that we don’t know. You can only label a poll like that with the benefit of hindsight and it might be that when we see further surveys that the poll carried…

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Has Labour got a by-election poll boost from MORI? – UPDATED

Has Labour got a by-election poll boost from MORI? – UPDATED

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CON 37% (-6) LAB 31% (+5) LD 17% (-2) OTHERS 15% The delayed survey has the Tory lead down to just 6pts There are reports about that a poll due out tonight is “very good for Labour“. We haven’t seen any numbers yet and this post will be updated when we get some. Which pollster it is I don’t know but the November Ipsos-MORI poll is long overdue. The field-work began a week last Friday in the immediate aftermath of…

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Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

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Is this a polite way of saying “I’m not voting”? Another poll this morning, the ComRes one for the Indy on Sunday, has a huge 19 percent share for “others” including 6 percent for the Greens. This is out of line with other firms but follows a 5 percent share in the ComRes poll at the end of October and, as we might recall, what proved to be a wildly optimistic 15 percent in the firm’s final survey ahead of…

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Is Michael Thrasher right about a hung parliament?

Is Michael Thrasher right about a hung parliament?

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Why won’t the pre-1997 polls comparison die? Michael Thrasher gave an interview for Sky News yesterday afternoon in which he built upon the article written for their website, inferring that the election is heading towards a hung parliament. In it, he made various claims and inferences that really shouldn’t be allowed to stand and which I find quite astonishing from such a senior expert in the subject. To summarise: He claimed that the Tories are struggling to break through 40%. In fact,…

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Is this the start of Labour’s recovery?

Is this the start of Labour’s recovery?

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Does the stunning victory have a national significance? As expected Labour have cruised to a victory in the by election caused by the resignation of Michael Martin. Technically this is a gain for the party because previously the seat was held by the Speaker. It’s the numbers themselves that are quite dramatic and will give real heart to the party as it plans the general election campaign. These were:- Labour – 12,231 votes (59.39%) SNP – 4,120 votes (20%) Tory…

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Is this why you should bet on a 38+ by-election turnout?

Is this why you should bet on a 38+ by-election turnout?

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Does Glenrothes point the way for November by elections? The weather reports from Glasgow point to a pretty nasty day as voters go to the polls in what is likely to be the last big test of opinion before the general election. This has led to some pundits to suggest that we are in for a low turnout and, indeed the Ladbrokes price on it being under 38% has tightened since the market went up. I’m not convinced and have…

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