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Category: By elections

Local By-Election Preview: November 6th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: November 6th 2014

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Mevagissey on Cornwall (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, UKIP 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 391 (30%), UKIP 363 (28%), Conservative 316 (24%), Liberal Democrats 184 (14%), Green 62 (7%) Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Maynard (Lib Dem), Katherine Moseley (Green), James Mustoe (Con), Charmain Nicholas (Lab), Michael Williams (UKIP) This is the…

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Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

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In Rochester together with @Conor_BurnsMP, @WilliamJHague, @MaryMacleodMP, and 100 enthusiastic members of @Team2015. pic.twitter.com/dNWc3DB6DH — Oliver Cooper (@OliverCooper) November 1, 2014 CON leads amongst those who voted for parties on the ballot at GE10 UKIP’s Survation lead based on NON GE10 voters the most flaky of all Why betting AGAINST UKIP might be value Overnight I’ve been laying (betting against) a UKIP victory on Betfair at odds which put the purples at a 92-94% chance. Bets, as we know, are…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 30th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : October 30th 2014

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Canvey Island East on Castle Point (Canvey Island Independent Defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 20, Canvey Island Independents 16, United Kingdom Independence Party 5 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 1) Result of ward at last election (2012): Canvey Island Independent 595 (48%), Conservative 291 (23%), Independent 195 (16%), Labour 158 (13%) Candidates duly nominated: Colin Letchford (Ind), Chas Mumford (Con), John Payne (Canvey Island Independent), Jackie Reilly (Lab) Castle Point Conservatives must be scratching their…

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Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

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pic.twitter.com/VFY8BtH0Cw — PolPics (@PolPics) October 28, 2014 Which party will win and what’ll be the winning percentage margin? Last night I attended a splendid book launch for the book by the academic duo of Phil Cowley and Rob Rord featured above. Extracts have received a fair bit of coverage in the past couple of days particularly on the sexual traits of different party supporters. The book is a compendium if fascinating political tales aimed, I’d suggest, at the political geek…

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Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections

Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,090 (41% +16%), Independent 629 (24% +1%), Labour 530 (20% -2%), Conservative 415 (16% -2%) SNP lead of 461 (17%) on the first count on a swing of 8% from Independent to SNP, SNP GAIN from Independent on the fourth count Rogate on Chichester (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 342 (71% -20%), UKIP 138 (29%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 204 (42%) on a swing of…

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The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

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Why aren’t we getting the full numbers like in Totnes in 2009? Totnes CON primary result 2009. All vote detail including spoilt ballots. Why not same for Rochester one? pic.twitter.com/yrKclLtJN7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2014 The first news that all was not well with the CON Rochester primary was this report, now not on the Spectator site, from the usually well informed Isabel Hardman. How the Speccie's Isabel Hardman first reported Rochester CON primary result. pic.twitter.com/iDo1h9LhCz — Mike…

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UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

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@jameschappers Given that each of the 70k+ electors got a reported THREE mailings 5,588 ballots returned still makes it a flop — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 The earlier Spectator report proved to an underestimate The reported turnout of 4000 in the Rochester Tory primary is a disaster for the party given the efforts put into it pic.twitter.com/bPJAMgYGHq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 By comparison with low turn-out in Rochester Conservative primary, 16,497 people voted in Totnes…

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Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

Generally the oldies are the key group for UKIP yet in the ComRes Rochester poll they give Reckless a lead of just 1%

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Most worrying numbers for UKIP from the ComRes Rochester poll: Amongst the oldies Reckless is only 1% ahead pic.twitter.com/jcYxvNYhwO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Looking more closely at the numbers Let there be no doubt – the UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll was terrible news for the Tories coming as it has just before the party announces the result of its all-postal primary on who should be the candidate. Looking closely at the ComRes data two demographic…

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