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Category: By elections

UKIP’s leader, Doc Nuttall, no longer odds-on favourite to take Stoke Central

UKIP’s leader, Doc Nuttall, no longer odds-on favourite to take Stoke Central

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There’s been a change in the Stoke central by-election betting with renewed interest in LAB and the move to Paul Nuttall, the UKIP leader, easing off. The big gap between UKIP and the main parties is that the latter have much more expertise and the basic infrastructure required to mount effectively FPTP election campaigns. UKIP, as I keep on pointing out, has never gained a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. A critical element in contests like this is data….

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A cartoon ahead of tomorrow’s historic Trump-May meeting in the US and tonight’s Local By-Election Preview

A cartoon ahead of tomorrow’s historic Trump-May meeting in the US and tonight’s Local By-Election Preview

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Kilmarnock East and Hurlford on East Ayrshire caused by the death of the sitting Scottish National Party member Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Labour 14, Conservatives 2, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party short by 2) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Scottish National Party 944, 1,126 (47%) Labour 1,054, 984 (46%) Conservative 326 (7%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 33,891 (59%) LEAVE 23,942 (41%) on a…

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LAB might be struggling in Stoke but don’t risk your money based on this so called “poll”

LAB might be struggling in Stoke but don’t risk your money based on this so called “poll”

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How the Express is reporting the Stoke central "poll" which wasn't. I'm told it was Facebook survey of 179 people pic.twitter.com/pVlmrSXTu5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 A big move in the betting overnight to UKIP in the Stoke central by-election following reports what was described as a poll. It wasn't. pic.twitter.com/HUHxWp9LL2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 Note that polls can only be described as valid if they aim to have a representative sample of relevant voters….

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LAB might get a Stoke Central boost by NOT having Tristram Hunt as their candidate

LAB might get a Stoke Central boost by NOT having Tristram Hunt as their candidate

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Why my money’s NOT going on Paul Nuttall Over the past week there’s been a rush to bet on UKIP in the Stoke Central by-election. This has gathered apace and now the best you can get is about 11/8. This has been driven by the demographics of the seat, the way it went so strongly for LEAVE at the referendum, and the fact that the leader of UKIP has decided to be the candidate. I’m not convinced and think that…

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The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square with the party’s rubbish performances since GE2015

The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square with the party’s rubbish performances since GE2015

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How the main two have done in LAB defences since GE2015 The CON performance in seats its defended since BREXIT And the local by election performance since last May’s elections Latest Betfair odds This latest betting move has been sparked off by press reports of LAB party canvas data. That, if true, came presumably from information gleaned before the candidate, was selected. Now that a local doctor and anti-Corbynite has been given the job then things could be different. One…

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Labour chooses a Corbyn critic to fight Copeland and this and the Stoke Central by-elections could be next month

Labour chooses a Corbyn critic to fight Copeland and this and the Stoke Central by-elections could be next month

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https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/822203695559544833 Big developments tonight in the two by-elections where LAB is defending seats where the sitting MPs are standing down to pursue other careers. According to Kevin Schofield of PoiticsHome Labour is planning to hold the two contests on the same day – something that always seemed likely. It had been thought that the party would have waited until My 4th – when elections are taking place in many parts of the country and we have the first mayoral elections…

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Just one council by-election tonight – a CON defence in the midlands

Just one council by-election tonight – a CON defence in the midlands

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Norton on Bromsgrove (caused by the death of the sitting Conservative councillor) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 18, Labour 7, Independents 3, Wythall Ratepayers 3 (Conservative majority of 5) Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 943 (60%), Labour 467 (30%), Green 166 (11%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 26,252 (45%) LEAVE 32,563 (55%) on a turnout of 79% Candidates duly nominated: Michelle Baker (Green), Rory Shannon (Lab), Adrian Smart (UKIP), Michael Webb (Con) Weather at the…

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Paul Nuttall’s doing the right thing by seeking to join Carswell in the Commons at the first opportunity

Paul Nuttall’s doing the right thing by seeking to join Carswell in the Commons at the first opportunity

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  This could be a tight 4 way contest The main non-BREXIT UK political news during the day has been that UKIP leader, Paul Nuttall, looks all set to become candidate in the Stoke Central by-election – the seat being made vacant by the Tristram Hunt departure. On Betfair the development has caused UKIP chances to move from 29% to 31% At GE2015 the purples beat the Tories by 33 votes into second place there and look to be in…

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