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Category: By elections

The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

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Young, non-white with a huge number of students The following is based on a briefing by David Cowling who writes that the “incomparable House of Commons Library have produced the following summary of 2011 census data for Manchester Gorton constituency” 52.4% of its residents were “White”; this is the lowest for any constituency in the North West, and the 8th lowest for constituencies across the UK outside London (Slough, Leicester South and Leicester East, Bradford West, Birmingham Perry Bar, Ladywood…

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Unless LAB make a disastrous candidate choice then it’s hard to see them losing Gorton

Unless LAB make a disastrous candidate choice then it’s hard to see them losing Gorton

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A seat where 62.1% voted REMAIN should in theory be challenging for Corbyn’s LAB Yesterday I Tweeted expressing the wish that the next by-election along would be somewhere that voted to stay in the EU last June 23rd. Sadly that has come about following the death of the long-standing Labour MP, Sir Gerald Kaufman, at the age of 86. As can been seen by the map the seat is rather odd shaped covering an area to the south of Manchester…

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LAB’s loss to the SDP in the Greenwich by-election exactly 30 years ago has lessons for the party today

LAB’s loss to the SDP in the Greenwich by-election exactly 30 years ago has lessons for the party today

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A guest slot by Stodge 30 years ago today (roughly), I was pounding the wet streets of Greenwich on a miserable cold Thursday evening. I was doing knock-up for this woman:    This was a by election in what was supposedly a safe Labour seat which had survived the 1983 Conservative landslide but the 1987 by-election was a disaster for the Party of Opposition. The third party vote (in this case the Conservatives) collapsed and Rosie Barnes swept home by…

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The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

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Just where is Labour’s floor for 2020? One of the best political tips of the 2015 general election was to back Labour for 0-5 seats in Scotland. When William Hill first put the market up – after the independence referendum – they marked that outcome at no less than 125/1. (I apologise for not being able to namecheck the PBer who tipped the bet; I forget who it was.) That price was a testament to the inertia of thinking as…

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Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

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It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened.  We should try to do better.  In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications.  Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold. The Conservatives did incredibly well This is one of those rare occasions where the media have actually underplayed something.  The Conservatives’ victory in Copeland is…

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If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

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Once again an election for a Westminster seat has highlighted the struggle UKIP has with first past the post elections. Even though it was placed third in terms of national vote share at GE2015 it only managed one of the 650 MPs. That was, of course, Carswell’s Clacton seat which he’d won in the 2014 by election when he’d stood as a defector incumbent. Getting to be top dog in one of the Westminster seats requires a very different approach…

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If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

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Tories GAIN Copeland. Surely Corbyn has to realise he is toxic with voters? pic.twitter.com/2Q29M0Z58y — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Copeland, result:CON: 44.3% (+8.5)LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)IND: 2.6% (+2.6)GRN: 1.7% (-1.3) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 #Copeland declaration imminent. A reminder there's been nothing directly comparable to this since the 19th century https://t.co/he6JBa4Y8B pic.twitter.com/90mk2A7tFv — Number Cruncher Politics UK (@NCPoliticsUK) February 24, 2017 In Copeland, Labour came very close to saying vote for us or…

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If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

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Gareth Snell the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter wins the Stoke by-election. Paul Nuttall loses in the capital of Brexit pic.twitter.com/NOeE2kJC79 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Stoke on Trent Central, result:LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)CON: 24.3% (+1.8)LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)GRN: 1.4% (-2.2) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 Stoke is only the 6th time in a by election in England since 1970 that the government has seen their share of the vote rise – John Curtice —…

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