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Category: By elections

Two seats which UKIP won last time amongst tonight’s local elections

Two seats which UKIP won last time amongst tonight’s local elections

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Elmhurst on Aylesbury Vale (UKIP defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 4, Labour 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 729, 652 (26%) United Kingdom Independence Party 666, 567 (23%) Labour 632, 516 (22%) Conservatives 604, 496 (21%) Green Party 220, 131 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 52,877 (49.5%), LEAVE 53,956 (50.5%)…

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If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle

If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle

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Today’s main polling news has been a London poll by YouGov for Queen Mary University where Professor Phil Cowley is one of the leading politics dons. He created the above charts. The main figures with changes on April last year were:- CON 34+4 LAB 37-9 LD 14+7 UKIP 9-4 GRN 5+1 As we all know London has a very different demographic profile from most of the country and there are very few places indeed which come close to matching it….

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Looking forward to the County Council Elections 2017

Looking forward to the County Council Elections 2017

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With no by-elections tonight and five weeks until the local elections, I thought it might be an idea to have a look at how the counties (last elected in 2013) might go this time around. Of course, since that night we have had a large number of things happen, the first Conservative majority government since 1996, Milliband standing down and Corbyn getting elected as Labour leader (twice) and the small matter of an EU referendum, therefore I have had a…

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At the last Gorton by-election the Tories, led by the visionary pro-European Ted Heath, came within 557 votes of victory

At the last Gorton by-election the Tories, led by the visionary pro-European Ted Heath, came within 557 votes of victory

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How will the BREXIT Tories do now? After their extraordinary gain of a by-election seat from LAB in Copeland we have heard very little of the blue team’s prospects in Manchester Gorton which is expected to take place on May 4th. Yet as the panel shows the Tories got very close to victory in the seat in 1967. No one is suggesting that the Tories have any chance whatsoever. The result from 1967 and what we know about the area…

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If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely have been favourites in Manchester Gorton

If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely have been favourites in Manchester Gorton

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But at GE2015 the yellows came in 5th losing their deposit Although the arrival of George Galloway in the Manchester Gorton race has caused a tightening of the Lib Dem odds the position is nothing like as strong as it would have been if the party had not gone onto the Coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. The chart above shows the extraordinary strength the party had in ward elections in the constituency in the period between the Iraq war…

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Local By-Election Review March 2017

Local By-Election Review March 2017

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Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result: Labour 446 (58% +12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 190 (25% -8%), Conservative 133 (17% -4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 256 (33%) on a swing of 10% from UKIP to Lab However, late yesterday afternoon it was discovered that the Labour candidate should not have been nominated as he was employed by an organisation that Blackburn with Darwen council have a material interest in, therefore the…

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Local By-Election Preview : March 23rd 2017

Local By-Election Preview : March 23rd 2017

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Yesterday, Westminster was attacked. If the aim was to stop democracy, then it clearly failed. Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 45, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 1,283 (46%), United Kingdom Independence Party 927 (33%), Conservative 570 (21%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 28,522 (44%) LEAVE 36,799 (56%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates…

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