Tonight’s cartoon and the latest Opinium poll
Opinium for Observer sees almost no movement CON 40 (=)LAB 42 (=)LD 6 (+1)UKIP 5 (=) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2017
DDavis drops sharply in the next CON leader betting following reports that he might quit
And he’s now being backed for next Cabinet exit A report in the Telegraph about the frustration that BrexSec DDavis is having with his job has prompted big changes in two betting markets – next CON leader and next Cabinet exit. Under the heading “Exclusive: David Davis could quit because ‘he is being frozen out on Brexit strategy’ by civil servants”. the paper’s Christopher Hope reports: “.David Davis could walk out on his job as Britain’s lead negotiator on Brexit…
Hammond looks set to reward the young for turning out in such numbers at GE2017
Mail Online But taking from older workers could be a big electoral gamble As was said repeatedly in the lead-up to June 8th the reason that the younger generations appear to get so poorly treated by governments is that by, in the past, not turning out at elections at similar rates to older ones they are seen to be electorally less important. Well the big move on general election day was a big increase in turnout levels in the 18-24…
The buzzword bingo on Theresa May’s Florence speech
Ladbrokes have a market up on what Theresa May might say in her Florence speech tomorrow, and I get the feeling that this is another market that will help contribute to the Ladbrokes Christmas bonus fund. If I had to choose I’d back the 12/1 on ‘Global Trading Power’, but if PBers spot any value, please let me know. TSE
Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackable?
After his budget U-turn he’s now joint 2nd favourite to be next cabinet minister out Back in October the Telegraph’s James Kirkup wrote how the Chancellor, Phillip Hammond believed that he was in a uniquely strong position in the cabinet “Mr Hammond is, to almost everyone’s surprise, the most interesting man in the Cabinet. Colleagues say that he calculates that he is, for now anyway, unsackable, and so he has the latitude to challenge Mrs May in a way others…
Now betting opens on whether the self employed NI increase will happen
William Hill have opened a market on the Chancellor’s controversial National Insurance increase for the self-employed – and are offering odds of 6/4 (40% chance of happening) that the new NIC rise WILL be implemented this year – and 1/ 2 that it will NOT be. ‘The adverse reaction to this issue appears to have taken Mr Hammond and Mrs May by surprise and there is speculation that it could be delayed and/or scrapped’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe. However,…
Maybe next time the Tories will have to emulate the GE2015 EdStone to show they’ll honour manifesto commitments
OmNICshambles, like the LDs tuition fees pledge, will be remembered The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has been in full defensive mode as he has sought to fight off the criticism that his National Insurance changes for the self-employed are in breach of a GE2015 Conservative manifesto pledge. His responses that this just applied to one form of NIC charges really didn’t resonate and he’d be well advised to find another way of dealing with the attacks. What is surprising is that…
If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments
The 2017 version of the pasty tax? At GE2015, less than two years ago, the Conservative made a very specific pledge – if elected there would be no increase in VAT, National Insurance Contributions or income tax. Well today’s big budget announcement from the Chancellor that the self-employed are going to see the NI contributions going up is going to be a hard one to explain and we’ve already seen the start of a storm brewing. One section of the…