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Category: BREXIT

The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come

The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come

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Embed from Getty Images   Britain is Brexiting, Trump is triumphant in the USA, France is flirting with the Front National and in countries as diverse as Sweden, Austria and the Netherlands, the far right is doing more than alright.  Yes, yes, but what does it mean? Much energy has been expended analysing why populism and the alt right are doing so well right now.  Rather less has been spent on considering the practical implications not just for individual countries…

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UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best

UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best

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A few months ago Harry Hayfield, PB’s local election specialist, introduced a new element in his regular monitoring of local by-election: dividing them up into whether the local authority areas voted REMAIN or LEAVE on June 23rd. This enables us to compare the two areas. A lot of focus has been put on seat changes but the above data looks at how the vote shares have changed in the two types of seat. The vote change relates to what happened…

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The LEAVE campaign’s message on the NHS is still resonating strongly with those who voted for BREXIT

The LEAVE campaign’s message on the NHS is still resonating strongly with those who voted for BREXIT

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The majority of leavers think BREXIT will be good for the NHS The latest YouGov out today, asks a question that has nor been put for some time – whether people think that leaving the EU will be good for the NHS. This was, of course, the biggest message from the officially designated LEAVE campaign and was the main theme of its referendum broadcasts. There was dispute over the £350m figure but the campaign held firm and continued using it…

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Theoretically at least TMay is the leader with biggest challenge keeping support together over BREXIT

Theoretically at least TMay is the leader with biggest challenge keeping support together over BREXIT

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Anti-BREXIT yellows can siphon away blue votes as well as red ones. While most pundits appear to have focused on Labour’s problems over BREXIT let’s not forgot that the Tory support base is even more divided. YouGov’s latest BREXIT tracker published yesterday had the above splits in party supporters view of the issue that’s set to define British politics. As can be seen the Tory voter base goes 63% right to 33% wrong on current views of the BREXIT vote….

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Labour: The party that’s too weak to win but too strong to die

Labour: The party that’s too weak to win but too strong to die

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LAB – too weak to win too strong to die. Excellent Fabian Soc report in Guardianhttps://t.co/kqq033vWHk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2017 More good news for Theresa in Fabian society report The first working day of 2017 opens with a gloomy report on Labour’s prospects from the Fabian Society covered in the Guardian. The overall conclusion is that the party could drop to fewer than 150 MPs, driven by difficulties articulating a BREXIT policy, the ongoing Scottish disaster and…

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Punters make it a 31% chance that the next general election will be in 2017

Punters make it a 31% chance that the next general election will be in 2017

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I might be wrong but am yet to be convinced On the UK front next year looks set to be dominated by BREXIT – the process of extracting the UK from the EU. Doing this successfully is set to be the defining act of Theresa May’s premiership and even though the referendum decision was more than six months ago we still have little idea what this is going to mean. The PM has managed to keep up her strategy of…

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