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Category: BREXIT

The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square with the party’s rubbish performances since GE2015

The Tories’ current odds-on status in Copeland doesn’t square with the party’s rubbish performances since GE2015

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How the main two have done in LAB defences since GE2015 The CON performance in seats its defended since BREXIT And the local by election performance since last May’s elections Latest Betfair odds This latest betting move has been sparked off by press reports of LAB party canvas data. That, if true, came presumably from information gleaned before the candidate, was selected. Now that a local doctor and anti-Corbynite has been given the job then things could be different. One…

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Timing is everything. A review of Theresa May’s speech

Timing is everything. A review of Theresa May’s speech

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Embed from Getty Images   There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures. Julius Caesar Act 4, scene 3, 218–224 Whatever else you think of Brexit, we are being led by powerful currents taking…

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After an extraordinary and dramatic political year so little has changed in the battle between CON & LAB

After an extraordinary and dramatic political year so little has changed in the battle between CON & LAB

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The main moves – UKIP down LD up After this morning’s YouGov poll came out I was asked on Twitter for the comparative numbers for a year ago and other points during 2016. The data is in the chart above and shows quite extraordinary that Labour and the Conservatives have almost the same numbers this month that they had a year ago. This is a period which has seen the election of a Muslim mayor in London, Brexit, and, of course, a…

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Now you can bet on how many LAB MPs will quit as during 2017

Now you can bet on how many LAB MPs will quit as during 2017

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  How many Labour MPs will resign during 2017? SIX or fewer – 10/11; SEVEN or more 10/11. #Labour — Graham Sharpe (@sharpeangle) January 14, 2017 Interesting new betting market up from William Hill on how many LAB MPs will quit the Commons this year. The bar has been set at six which seems reasonable given that we know about Copeland, Tristram Hunt and Andy Burnham’s promise to resign if he’s elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester. There are lots…

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Experto credite, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

Experto credite, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

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Graphic credit: Twitter Economists have had their Michael Fish moment, so said Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England speaking at the Institute of Government last week.  Having predicted a post-Brexit referendum crash that failed to happen, he believes the profession of economics is to some degree in crisis.  But it raises a wider question: what weight should we put in the judgements of experts?  Have we had enough of experts? This is a question of much recent…

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Farron says Corbyn’s now “cheerleader in chief for the Conservative Brexit government”

Farron says Corbyn’s now “cheerleader in chief for the Conservative Brexit government”

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.@timfarron : Jeremy Corbyn has ceased to be Leader of the Opposition to become cheerleader in chief for the Conservative Brexit government” — Lib Dem Media Team (@LibDemPress) January 9, 2017 Corbyn’s LAB re-launch day – how its going so far One of the features of the post-GE215 uprising within Labour that brought Corbyn victory in the leadership elections was the way that anyone who opposed their man was tagged by the Corbynistas as a “Tory”. In Labour circles this…

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Team Corbyn makes a generous New Year gift to Tim Farron given that 68% of current LAB voters think it is wrong to leave

Team Corbyn makes a generous New Year gift to Tim Farron given that 68% of current LAB voters think it is wrong to leave

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Corbyn's new year gift to Tim Farron given that 68% of current LAB voters think BREXIT wrong (YouGov)https://t.co/j6UEazIaBp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2017 Why Labour has to be ultra-careful on its BREXIT stance. More than 2/3 of its voters think it is wrong to leave. pic.twitter.com/F4XkMrsNxd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet