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Category: BREXIT

The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

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As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t. In this thread I will examine the numerology of the next election working through various scenarios: First up 326 + CON MPs –…

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Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out against each other

Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out against each other

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The longstanding Brexiteer versus the defector to the LDs The Berkshire constituency of Wokingham is one of the most intriguing battle grounds at the General Election for it is where the veteran Brexiteer, John Redwood, is seeking to defend his seat against the remain backing former CON MP from the neighbouring constituency, Philip Lee. Redwood has been MP there since 1987. It will be recalled that when Parliament resumed in September it was while Johnson was speaking that Phillip Lee…

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Tories trading today at record highs on the Commons Seats spreadbetting markets

Tories trading today at record highs on the Commons Seats spreadbetting markets

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The @sportingindex Commons seats spread betting markets have been trading today at record highs for the Torieshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/uErgV2qu1w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2019 With nominations for GE2019 closing at 4pm tomorrow we are just four weeks away from polling day. Postal voting is likely to start perhaps a week and a half later depending on the local authority. The Tory polling position is nothing like as dominant as it was at this stage in 2017. Indeed four weeks…

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The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

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LAB seeing significant seepage amongst its GE2107 leavers But holding up better amongst remainers though the LDs a worry What’s going to be key is being seen as the main option for tactical votes in key battlegrounds where the Tories are on the offensive, A problem is that a party that’s seen to be hemorrhaging support would find it harder to present itself as the tactical vote choice. My view is that so much depends on the final week because…

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After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

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But is it a bigger deal as is being made out? Today’s move by Farage sounds like a very important development but are we over stating it? Much of the coverage seems to be based on the widespread assumption that all the BP party vote will automatically go to the Tories. This is of course nonsense because a quite large slice of BP support comes from former LAB voters who would never go near the Tories. So the effect of…

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Foxes and Hedgehogs – a tale of tactics without strategy

Foxes and Hedgehogs – a tale of tactics without strategy

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” (Sun Tzu). Something those Remainer MPs behind the Benn Act would do well to reflect on. However successful it was in stopping a Halloween No Deal exit and, arguably, forcing Boris to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement he could sell to his party, its effect has been to put the Tories in a strong position as they embark on their General Election campaign. How so? It allows Boris to say that he:- Got the Withdrawal Agreement…

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A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat

A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat

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Ever since a 2019 general election became a certainty punters made a CON majority the favourite outcome touching nearly a 60% chance on the Betfair according to the betdata.io chart. That’s all changed following Farage announcement that his Brexit Party will fight a full range of seats thus possibly splitting the leave vote unless Johnson is ready to form a leave alliance. Looking at the official election timetable the last point at which Farage has got to decide is 4pm…

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With the former Brexit deadline ending at 11pm how the betting’s moved since Johnson came

With the former Brexit deadline ending at 11pm how the betting’s moved since Johnson came

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So here we are and a third Brexit deadline is about to be missed in spite of Johnson firm assertions that we would be leaving tonight when he first became PM. This has been a very active betting market with on Betfair alone £7.2m of bets being matched. The Betdata.io chart of Betfair prices really follows what has been happening. My own view is that Johnson won’t suffer any real political damage from failing to get the UK out by…

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