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Category: BREXIT

A reminder of the great political betting night June 23/24 2016 as punters were slow to realise that Leave was winning

A reminder of the great political betting night June 23/24 2016 as punters were slow to realise that Leave was winning

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Chart of Betfair Exchange trades from Betdata.io There was a discussion on the previous thread on the betting prices overnight in June last year when the Brexit referendum results began to come in. Thanks to Betdata.io which monitors these things on Betfair the above is the final 12 hours of betting. What is striking is just how slow punters were to realise that Remain wasn’t winning. At 2310 the Remain price reached a 93.5% chance and a lot of money…

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The excellent Vietnam documentary series is a reminder that we need to learn from history

The excellent Vietnam documentary series is a reminder that we need to learn from history

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Picture credit: The CIA In Ken Burns’ documentary on the Vietnam War, President Kennedy is quoted as saying: “We don’t have a prayer of staying in Vietnam.  These people hate us.  But I can’t give up a piece of territory like that to the Communists and then get the people to re-elect me.”  LBJ felt much the same.  And yet, a President who – more than Kennedy – deserved to be called great, both for the breadth of his social…

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Brexit – the Guilty Men?

Brexit – the Guilty Men?

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Cyclefree sticks her neck out and gives her choices Scepticism (Euroscepticism, certainly) has a bad press these days. But being sceptical of received wisdom, of grand plans and theories, of the assumption that because matters have always been this way, this is how they should remain, is a good thing. At its best, it’s the courage to ask “Why?”and “Why not?” We could have done with more of it when Mrs May came out with her alliterative but empty “Brexit…

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The trend in the YouGov Brexit tracker edges towards those who think it is wrong

The trend in the YouGov Brexit tracker edges towards those who think it is wrong

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Above is my annotated version of the latest YouGov summary chart showing the top line responses since the referendum when the the firm’s tracker question was asked. The question is in exactly the same form every time and reads “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” I’ve put a little green tick against those polls where more thought it was right than wrong and a red one alongside where more…

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Its 5/4 at Ladbrokes that there’ll be no deal on Brexit

Its 5/4 at Ladbrokes that there’ll be no deal on Brexit

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Ladbrokes has some new markets up on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations which look interesting but I’m not sure if any of them offer any value. The options are above with 5/4 being offered on no deal being agreed before the Article 50 deadline 18 months on from now. Note the way the bookie is defining what a deal actually is. The 4/1 on Britain still being a member of the EU at the end of 2019 and whether…

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Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

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And Remain 3 points ahead to hypothetical 2nd EuRef question Survation, the pollsters that was widely, and as it turned out unfairly, criticised in the run-up to GE2017 because it had the smallest CON leads has a new voting poll it. Its relatively old with its fieldwork being carried out in the week of the Tory conference when the blue team were making the headlines for all sorts of reason. The splits are CON 38%, LAB 44%, and LD 7%….

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Ex-YouGov president Peter Kellner says “Brexit Buyers’ remorse” might be starting particularly amongst C2DEs

Ex-YouGov president Peter Kellner says “Brexit Buyers’ remorse” might be starting particularly amongst C2DEs

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In an excellent article the former YouGov President, Peter Kellner, says there could be signs of buyer’s remorse amongst LEAVE voters particularly amongst the C2DEs. He based this in Prospect on an analysis of the trend to YouGov’s “in hindsight was referendum outcome right or wrong” tracker. Last Friday this showed “wrong” at its highest level with a 5% lead. Kellner, who strips out the don’t knows from the findings, goes on: “..On its own, this latest finding could be…

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Quantum physics could have the answer to Brexit’s Ireland problem

Quantum physics could have the answer to Brexit’s Ireland problem

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Perhaps Schroedinger’s Border Guards should patrol the Customs Union Brexit will happen. As Alastair Meeks sensibly pointed out here yesterday, there’s a good, clear case that Article 50 is not revocable. Britain could ask for an extension to the talks but the PM has been clear that she doesn’t intend to do so and in any case, a delay is not a reversal of course. In practice, the transitional arrangement might look very much like continued membership but even that…

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