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Category: BREXIT

Meanwhile a slight increase in approval for the handling of Brexit negotiations but even less confidence about what’ll happen

Meanwhile a slight increase in approval for the handling of Brexit negotiations but even less confidence about what’ll happen

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In what I think is the first published political polling of 2018 the latest ORB Brexit trackers are out. There had been much expectation following the success of Theresa May’s talks in Brussels last month that this would lead to some improvement in the ratings. Well there has been a little bit of movement on the approval of the Brexit negotiations but nothing much and well within the margin of error. The other traffic tracker on the public’s Expectations what’s…

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If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE17 gains from CON were in Leave areas?

If LAB’s vulnerable on Brexit how come the majority of its GE17 gains from CON were in Leave areas?

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And how come that the majority of CON gains were in Remain areas? One of the ongoing narratives over the past year has been that Labour is particularly vulnerable on Brexit because about two-thirds of its constituencies voted leave in the referendum in June 2016. This has continued even though Labour made inroads into the Conservative base on June 8th and only lost 5 seats. What is interesting is looking at the referendum outcomes in the 28 seats that Labour…

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YouGov’s latest Brexit tracker – the monthly average trend chart and latest party splits

YouGov’s latest Brexit tracker – the monthly average trend chart and latest party splits

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There really has been very little movement The final 2017 poll was for YouGov which included it’s regular Brexit tracker which PB has been reporting on ever since it was introduced shortly after the 2016 Brexit referendum. Some have criticised the phraseology of YouGov’s question with the suggestion that the term “in hindsight” is leading people to take the view the decision was wrong. Maybe – but that doesn’t shows up in the numbers with a very high proportion of…

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Defining Britain: who wins that battle will likely win GE2022

Defining Britain: who wins that battle will likely win GE2022

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The UK’s self-image must change post-Brexit – but to what? By rights, the Conservative Party should have disappeared a long time ago. On the wrong side of the Reform debate before 1832, their opponents dominated the middle of the nineteenth century. That was in no small part down to divisions within the Tories but was also because the Liberals had a better vision to sell to a rapidly industrialising and urbanising Britain and to its newly enfranchised electorate. As the…

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The challenges facing the Conservatives

The challenges facing the Conservatives

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The Conservatives are in power and in disarray.  They possess a will to power but no common view on what to do with it.  For now the bulk of the party is intent on pursuing Brexit to its bitter conclusion.  But what then?  What indeed.  For the Conservative coalition has been turned upside down. Charles gave a crisp summary a couple of weeks ago of the three Conservative tribes. All three have abandoned their usual stances in the face of…

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Young voters are much more opposed to blue passports being brought back than older ones in favour

Young voters are much more opposed to blue passports being brought back than older ones in favour

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A smart electoral move or not? Above is based on YouGov polling from last February when the specific question of the post-Brexit reintroduction of the blue passport was asked. This is something that ministers have just announced will happen. The figure shown is the net one. The total opposed is subtracted from those supporting for each segment. As can be seen from the chart this will please some older voters but in the overall sample there were more opposed than…

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