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Category: BREXIT

If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

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William Hill have a market on whether there will be a second EU in/out referendum before the 1st of January 2019, I’m backing the No side. Logistically I just cannot see a referendum happening this year. It would require legislation to be passed by both parts of Parliament, given the number of Leavers in both places, and Mrs May’s lack of majority in both Houses such a bill is likely to get bogged down in Parliamentary trench warfare. I suspect…

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Why we should look closely at the precise wording of second referendum polling questions

Why we should look closely at the precise wording of second referendum polling questions

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Same poll split sample producing very different responses VERSION ONE:Once the negotiations between Britain and the European Union over a Brexit deal have been completed, do you think there should or should not be a public vote on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all? VERSION TWO Once the negotiations between Britain and the European Union over a Brexit deal have been completed, do you think the public should or should not have a final…

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YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

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The perception could be highly dangerous as we move forward This is the first time, as far as I can recall, that this line of questioning has been put and the results have to be looked at in the context of all the news that we have had in the past few weeks. I was quite shocked by the figures which are higher than I thought when I just looked at the questions. Full details from the polling can be…

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Get ready for the final Brexit battle: the Electoral Commission’s probe on Vote Leave’s spending

Get ready for the final Brexit battle: the Electoral Commission’s probe on Vote Leave’s spending

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Matthew Elliott, Vote Leave's Chief Executive, admitting on Friday that if the Electoral Commission or courts find against them, the result is unsafe. pic.twitter.com/7ECT9v6BlO — Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) March 31, 2018 Sunday TELEGRAPH: “Election watchdogs face calls to resign over Brexit ‘bias’ “ #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/enzSC1hG6d — Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) March 31, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

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Betdata.io The chart shows the movement on the Betfair brexit betting market since March 29th last year when article 50 was invoked. As can be seen there has been quite a change particularly in the past few weeks and now the money is going on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th 2019. This is all based on the Betfair betting exchange where different punters set the odds and not the bookmaker. For an exchange brings together those who…

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A year to go till Brexit and the latest YouGov tracker has Britain as divided as ever

A year to go till Brexit and the latest YouGov tracker has Britain as divided as ever

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A year to go and the latest chart based on the YouGov Brexit tracker pic.twitter.com/cqW6hhQL4z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2018 Latest YouGov Brexit tracker finds "wrong to leave" once again with a lead.In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? Right 42% -1Wrong 45% =DK 14% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2018 Chart with LAB voter split on Brexit tracker in latest YouGov poll pic.twitter.com/gyLXN4NQuo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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So far the questions over the Leave campaign funding haven’t impacted on the betting

So far the questions over the Leave campaign funding haven’t impacted on the betting

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Punters think there’s a 57% chance that UK will leave EU a year on Thursday The big Brexit development over the weekend have been the revelations about the Leave campaign funding and whether the law was followed. Those pushing this forward are clearly hoping that this could impede the Brexit process and de-legitimise the Referendum outcome. So far punters are not impressed and the Betfair exchange currently rates the chances of UK leaving the EU on March 29th of next…

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