With exquisite timing the European Court of Justice will give its verdict in the article 50 case at 8am on Monday morning just a day before the big vote in House of Commons on the deal that would seal Britain’s exit from the EU. The court will rule whether or not the UK can revoke its decision in March 2017 to give notice of its plan to leave. We’ve already had a hint of the way this might go with…
As the polls closed punters rated Remain as a 93.5% chance With Brexit totally dominating the political scene at the moment I thought it might be useful to look back to the night of June 23rd 2016 when the referendum results came in and how the betting markets reacted. Just before the polls close the then UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, conceded defeat. YouGov published a poll taken during the day showing with a clear lead and news of these figures…
“Sovereign Lord, as you have promised, you may now dismiss your servant in peace.” What is Theresa May’s premiership for? She was chosen by her party to effect Brexit and she has applied herself with determination to the task ever since. She spent the first months whipping the Leave faithful into a fervour, convincing them that she was on their side. Thus we learned that Brexit was Brexit and that she wanted a red white and blue Brexit. An effigy…
How the Brexit vote, a VoNC and the FTPA could create Christmas chaos Poldark is not a documentary. As with many a period drama, it captures in the mirror as much of a picture of the era in which the adaptation was made as that in which it’s set. That’s not just true of the characters and their actions but of the world around them. To take one example, the ease and comfort with which they appear to nip up…
A spectre is haunting Parliament – the spectre of a new referendum. On Tuesday, Parliament voted to allow itself to amend any back-up plan that the government brought forward in the event that its own deal was defeated in the meaningful vote next week. As things stand, defeat in that vote looks inevitable at present. The odds on a #peoplesvote or fresh referendum or re-ferendum or whatever you want to call it have risen sharply as a result. A fresh…
With the political process of the UK leaving the EU completely dominating the headlines the latest YouGov brexit tracker has unwelcome news for those who want to follow the referendum result. The figures are in the chart above. 49% believe that in hindsight it was wrong to vote to leave the EU with 38% saying it was right. The question has been asked several times a month by YouGov in exactly the same form since the referendum in 2016 and…
Punters now think..2019 GE now MORE likely UK LESS likely to leave EU on March 29th A second Brexit referendum MORE likely Charts once again based on latest trades on the Betfair exchange shown as a percentage probability and derived from Betdat.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
At 50/1 a good bet? These are quite extraordinary times and one of the “stars” to have emerged has been the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox – someone who first came to many people’s attention when he introduced TMay at October’s CON conference. I thought he did brilliantly yesterday handling what was a very difficult issue for the government and no doubt will be seeing more of him later. He’s not someone who has been mentioned much as a prospective CON…