So TMay wins 200 to 117 – but is the margin enough?
The Tory Brexit dilemma goes on Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
How people would feel if the government cancelled Brexit & Britain stayed in the EU?
Trying to measure the “betrayal effect” Interesting polling out today from YouGov which could just become increasingly important. My initial reaction is that the 24% saying they’d feel betrayed is much lower than I’d have thought and puts into context some of the assertions from the ERG gang as they try to argue for a hard Brexit. That such a smallish percentage say they’d feel berated if Brexit got cancelled does not quite fit with some of the rhetoric that…
As the big vote gets delayed the betting on 2nd referendum gets tighter and tighter
Betdata.io ..the ex-Mayor is once again favourite to succeed TMay ..and TMay becomes a 28% chance to go this year Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned
Could this make it easier persuading hardline MPs? This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening. The reaction of punters has been that the UK leaving the EU as planned on March 29th as planned is less likely. Currently it is now a 61% chance that this will not happen. On December 5th the Betfair exchange had…
BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Remainers and Leavers are in for surprises
In the previous article I highlighted how UK politicians have become so entrenched in their insular debate that they are effectively ignoring the significant changes sweeping Europe. One can argue that our MPs primary focus has become to smash the other side rather than look at what is best for the country. So perhaps they should take some time to look beyond these shores and see how the politics are lining up. REMAINERS Congratulations! We are staying in! Enjoy the…
BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 1 Europe has changed – We can’t put Humpty together again.
In the first of a two part series, Alanbrooke looks at our relationship with the EU. As the Brexit debate rolls on the recent ruling by the ECJ Advocate General that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50 brings a new angle to proceedings. Suddenly it is a lot easier to stay in. The uncertainty around how to stay in the EU and under which terms looks a lot clearer and in some ways simpler. So set aside the mechanics of…
The first months of a Corbyn government
It’s objectively clear that there is a genuine possibility of a Corbyn government within months, possibly even weeks. That might be after an election, or it might be simply that the Conservatives lose the will to govern: there is a limit to how long governments can function with every vote at risk of failure, and yielding to a minority Labour government which is also subject to hostile majorities at every turn may seem a lesser evil. But there’s been very…
Prodi’s assertion that the EU will negotiate further if MPs reject the deal makes TMay’s task even harder
EU WILL negotiate if TMay loses Tuesday's Commons Brexit vote, says former EU head Prodi https://t.co/6EHH57jHdv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2018 This is about identity not the economy Tomorrow’s Observer is carrying an interview with former EU President, Romano Prodi, suggesting that Brussels will be ready to negotiate further if, as is expected, MPs vote down TMay’s deal on Tuesday. The prime minister has, of course, used the consequences of the EU not being ready to offer more…