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Category: BREXIT

Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit is delayed and/or revoked and it is all thanks to the ERG

Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit is delayed and/or revoked and it is all thanks to the ERG

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Cartoon by Marf I’ve been betting on the assumption of leaving the EU at the end of the month with No Deal for quite some time for the following reasons Brexit: It’s the law that we exit on the 29th of March 2019 No matter how many times MPs vote to say they are opposed to No Deal they need to pass primary legislation to stop No Dea and I think they’ve run out of time to do so. Donkeys…

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Surely an Article 50 extension should be used to allow a proper investigation into the legitimacy of Leave’s victory

Surely an Article 50 extension should be used to allow a proper investigation into the legitimacy of Leave’s victory

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From the Washington Post – The more we learn about Brexit, the more crooked it looks https://t.co/rmejtfcSzK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2019 The UK cannot take such a giant step while questions are still unanswered One of the thing’s that’s been quite extraordinary since June 2016 is, with one or two major exceptions, that the UK media has been reluctant to delve into questions over how the campaign operated. The result is now that the UK is edging…

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On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71% chance to 16% in just five months

On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71% chance to 16% in just five months

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange What’s happened on the £3.3m main Brexit market As we get closer to Brexit day the betting interest grows and on the Betfair exchange a total of £3.3m has already been wagered on this one Brexit market alone. I cannot recall a non-election market which has attracted this level and, of course it will grow and grow as we get nearer 11pm three weeks on from today. The extraordinary changes in the…

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Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the referendum & YouGov on what voters think will happen

Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the referendum & YouGov on what voters think will happen

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US Senate report on Russia's role during the UK referendum campaign https://t.co/pdXbW1WW30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2019 New YouGov polling finds just 12% now think that the UK will leave the EU three weeks on Monday with a deal. pic.twitter.com/dA6Os4hBAx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2019 If we stay in the EU, responsibility will be shared by Tory purist Brexiters and Labour MPs who said they'd respect the referendum — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) March 7, 2019

If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Mrs May should have declared her deal a triumph As we move closer to the critical votes next week on Brexit the betting markets remain uncertain as to what is going to happen. The chart above shows a market that we’ve not featured on PB before – when will the UK actually leave the EU. If Theresa May gets her deal through then the chances are that the March 29th deadline could…

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A second referendum conducted under AV maybe the only way to end the Brexit impasse

A second referendum conducted under AV maybe the only way to end the Brexit impasse

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If Parliament is unable to come to a resolution on Brexit then perhaps they might send it back to the people. Recents events makes me think we’re headed for another referendum on all things Brexit, so the only question and options is what will be on the ballot paper. Why I think a Remain option will end up on the ballot paper is twofold. Firstly Parliament has to legislate for another referendum and given the the make up of Parliament…

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At GE2017 CON voters were SIX TIMES more likely to say Brexit was the key factor in deciding votes than LAB ones

At GE2017 CON voters were SIX TIMES more likely to say Brexit was the key factor in deciding votes than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft polls Why Brexit is much less of an issue for the red team On General Election day in June 2017 the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a large sample poll to try to find out why voters had decided in the way they had. A key question was asking what was the main factor in determining the votes and the outcomes for each main group of parties are featured in the chart above. As can be seen…

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