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Category: BREXIT

Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be in tatters and that has betting implications

Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be in tatters and that has betting implications

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Michael Gove 2016 > "The day after we leave, we hold all the cards" Michael Gove 2019 > “It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit tariffs on beef and sheep meat would be above 40%”#PieceOfShit pic.twitter.com/dFOPRklr3V — Marie-Ann Detests Tories ?? ?? ?? (@MarieAnnUK) March 20, 2019 Like David Herdson I fear that No Deal is imminent and likely, especially with 170 Tory MPs in favour of it, so what are the implications…

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No Deal remains imminent and likely

No Deal remains imminent and likely

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Picture Judy Goldhill The Withdrawal Agreement remains an unmet EU expectation A failure to understand the other side’s point of view has been more than a running Brexit theme: it’s infected every aspect of Britain’s relationship with what’s now the EU throughout the last seven decades. Unsurprising then that miscalculations and misunderstandings continue to be made. That the same problem affects the domestic dialogue of the deaf that represents the Leave-Remain debate is hardly a cause for consolation. The cost…

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Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

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?? Latest Brexit Odds ??1/3 UK holds European Elections in May8/11 2019 General Election2/1 2019 Referendum2/1 UK leaves with NO DEAL on April 12th — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) March 29, 2019 And on Betfair On Betfair a 2019 general election now a 54% chance@betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/AZ4AyKmpDu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

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IDS's soeech aimed at the #erg – balance of risk has changed even though the #WA hasn't – support the deal and get changes under new leadership. but that same message may dissuade some potential ?@UKLabour? rebels pic.twitter.com/ky486ZKqC5 — iain watson (@iainjwatson) March 29, 2019 And a “helpful” intervention from Osbo Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: Happy No Brexit Day! pic.twitter.com/vrPH8MVDa3 — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) March 29, 2019 I’m sitting on a number of bets on by March 30th in Betfair’s “When will…

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The picture of TMay that says it all on most of the front pages this morning

The picture of TMay that says it all on most of the front pages this morning

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Will she stay if Brexit doesn’t happen? It is not often that the papers are all at one over what is the big news of the day. Interestingly as well they mostly use the same picture of Theresa May to illustrate their stories and this, my guess, will go down as a match to the shots of Maggie Thatcher in the car as she was leaving Downing Street for the last time in November 1990. The problem with her withdrawal…

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The danger for TMay is that in wooing ERG hardliners she might be alienating LAB soft brexiteers and CON remainers

The danger for TMay is that in wooing ERG hardliners she might be alienating LAB soft brexiteers and CON remainers

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if Johnson or Raab is in charge of negotiations on future relationship with EU, which are more important some would say than the divorce talks, that relationship will be uber Brexity. So in wooing one important constituency to get her deal over the line, she has alienated… — Robert Peston (@Peston) March 27, 2019 This gets more complex by the hour Robert Peston makes a very strong point in his Tweets above about the difficulty TMay has in appealing to…

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Johnson edges back to favourite on the day that TMay’s future could be decided

Johnson edges back to favourite on the day that TMay’s future could be decided

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange On the face of it a lot could be decided today that will give us a clearer view of Britain’s and Theresa May’s political Futures. The two are clearly interlinked. With even some of her most hostile opponents within the parliamentary party now supporting her deal the prime minister is facing her backbenchers this afternoon when it’s widely expected that she’ll be pressed strongly to give an indication of her exit date….

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What can we expect from the planned Brexit inquiry

What can we expect from the planned Brexit inquiry

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A look at what’s happened before In January 2004 the Hutton report into Dr David Kelly’s death was awaited with anticipation. The hearings had put the actions of politicians, civil servants, journalists, senior BBC management under a forensic scrutiny they would not normally expect. The Iraq war – the inquiry’s bloody context – had turned into a desperate civil war. No WMD had been found. The sad story of a respected scientist apparently bullied to his death as part of a greater…

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