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Category: BREXIT

Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

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The YouGov poll published yesterday showed the Conservatives polling 16% in the European election, Opinium had the Conservatives on 17% so it is worth analysing this market from Ladbrokes on what vote share the Conservatives will achieve. I’ll explain why I think the 12/1 is the best option. I) A polarised electorate and polarising election. This election will be seen as a de facto referendum on Brexit, Remainers and Leavers will want to utilise their vote to send a message on Brexit….

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast analyses May’s EU elections – the contest that’s taken the political world by surprise –

The PB/Polling Matters podcast analyses May’s EU elections – the contest that’s taken the political world by surprise –

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look in detail at the prospects for EU parliamentary elections in the UK now that Brexit has been delayed up to a further 6 months. Listen to the episode below Follow this week’s guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi

The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit betting markets

The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit betting markets

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Still the same stalemate but now with added time A quick look across the Brexit related betting markets suggest that there has been relatively little movement given the developments last night. That might be because Theresa May didn’t get her very short extension and neither did the EU leadership get their longer one. A no-deal Brexit now rated at a 14% chance which is barely changed. That UK will hold EU elections in May is up 3% to 95% but…

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Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

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BREAKING: EU leaders have agreed a delay to Brexit until 31 October, with a review in June, according to EU diplomats. Follow live updates here: https://t.co/iRW5ZC1LSF — Alan McGuinness (@Alan_McGuinness) April 10, 2019 Earlier on this evening it looked like the French were going to ensure a No Deal Brexit on Friday but the rest of the EU bypassed them like the Germans bypassed the Maginot Line in 1940. https://t.co/Y2xCxlceG4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2019 Per EU source. France…

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Telegraph piece backs 400/1 shot Mark Francois to be next CON leader

Telegraph piece backs 400/1 shot Mark Francois to be next CON leader

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Telegraph piece backs Mark Francois for leader https://t.co/pBOEsYH9Qd — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) April 10, 2019 On Betfair Exchange he is currently 400/1. I’ve wagered £2 at 402/1. In many ways from the extreme Brexiteers position you can see the logic in the position. Francois has kept totally to the faith without wavering but I’m not confident about my bet! Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

TMay makes most of the front pages this morning as reports continue of efforts to oust her

TMay makes most of the front pages this morning as reports continue of efforts to oust her

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But she’s not going, surely, before the Euros? Given the fact that we could be seeing two separate sets of elections next month, the locals on May 2nd and the Euros on May 23rd it is hard to see how TMay a can be pushed out before then. In many way her challenges are not of her own making. It was her predecessor who committed the Tories to a referendum and the 51.9%-48.1% outcome was hardly a mandate for some…

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Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

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The 2019 Euro elections – not a contest I thought was going to require a British perspective. Yet here we are, taking at least one more curtain call. Last time Britain elected MEPs in the following numbers: UKIP 24 Labour 20 Conservatives 19 Green 3 SNP 2 Lib Dems 1 Plaid Cymru 1 DUP 1 Sinn Fein 1 UUP 1 UKIP tallied 26.6% of the vote to take first place on a turnout of just under 36%. It should be…

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Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in the 2019 Euro Elections

Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in the 2019 Euro Elections

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange This Tweet seems to confirm Members of the approved list of Tory candidates have been told in an email from CCHQ that the UK "will" be contesting EU elections on May 23rd — Patrick Maguire (@patrickkmaguire) April 8, 2019 So the chances of the UK participating in the May 23rd euro elections seems to have increased sharply during the day based on information coming out of Brussels. The real interesting feature is…

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