Browsed by
Category: BREXIT

The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB backs a second referendum

The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB backs a second referendum

Comments 0 Comment

There has to be a general election first and that means retaining remain support Lots of discussion ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of Labours National Executive Committee which will decide on the party’s policy on Brexit for the May 23rd euro elections. The big question is whether a referendum will be offered and under what terms. So far the leadership has managed skillfully to bypass this by mentioning a second referendum almost as a footnote in policy statements. That would need…

Read More Read More

Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

Comments 0 Comment

There were a LOT of polls, including my own, that failed to notice. 2/? — Martin Boon (@martinboon) April 26, 2019 How much can we rely on polling for the Euros? The above was the start of a Twitter thread over the weekend from Martin Boon who has been a major figure in he British polling industry for several decades. He was with ICM and is now part of DeltaPoll. His Tweets raised questions on the mechanics of polling which…

Read More Read More

Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

Comments 0 Comment

This looks like the best way to get a 25% return in eight months. Earlier on this month I wrote a piece about the plans of Tory Leavers to try and oust John Bercow this week just gone, accurately I predicted they wouldn’t have the numbers to oust Speaker Bercow.  In that piece I bemoaned there were no Bercow exit markets but thankfully Paddy Power now have a market on whether Speaker Bercow will leave his job in 2019. For…

Read More Read More

What could really drive LAB voters away is Corbyn ignoring the vast majority of them on Brexit

What could really drive LAB voters away is Corbyn ignoring the vast majority of them on Brexit

Comments 0 Comment

Does he commit to a “confirmatory referendum” or not? Next week’s Labours ruling national executive committee will be faced with demands to include a clear commitment to a confirmatory public vote on Brexit in its European election manifesto. This is something that has not appeared in draft leaflets that have been circulated within the party and have aroused fury. Ever since June 24th 2016 Corbyn and his team have managed to deftly avoid pressure from the anti-Brexiteers and have stuck…

Read More Read More

The Tories should take some consolation from Newport West – the disaster that did not happen

The Tories should take some consolation from Newport West – the disaster that did not happen

Comments 0 Comment

Betting favourite for 2nd UKIP ended with barely a quarter of the CON vote The narrative at the moment is all about how appallingly the Tories will do in the Euro elections on May 23rd. Almost no threads appear on PB these without some new prediction of the impending disaster. But are we overstating this? I think that we might be Let us look back just three weeks when we were digesting the Newport West by-election result. The UKIP candidate…

Read More Read More

Four weeks to go to the Euros and the polling has it very tight

Four weeks to go to the Euros and the polling has it very tight

Comments 0 Comment

What is extraordinary about the coming Euro elections on May 23rd is just how many different parties will be on the ballot papers. The Wikipedia polling table above seeks to include all of them and I don’t think there has been a previous election like this in modern times. The one thing that makes the coming election different from 2014 is that there will be no simultaneous local elections on the same day. This is the first time this has…

Read More Read More

So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

Comments 0 Comment

Sir Graham Brady says the 1922 Committee will ask Theresa May for “clarity” on when she will step down if she cannot get a Brexit deal through parliament. Declines to say whether this means a specific date. — Ben Kentish (@BenKentish) April 24, 2019 Journos should be more sceptical about ERG briefings I don’t know about you but I’m getting a bit tired of all these headlines about Theresa May on the point of being ousted. This started, it will…

Read More Read More

Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Comments 0 Comment

Nigel Farage’s second coming has been greeted with fanfares in the media, which love someone who courts publicity and is prepared to do whatever it takes to get it. His gaping maw can be viewed wherever you look, and he has so far been given an unimpeded run for his message that Brexit has been betrayed. His credentials as a strategic genius who delivered Brexit are taken as read. His brilliance as a politician is assumed. The imminent collapse of…

Read More Read More