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Category: BREXIT

Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

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In Thursday's European elections it's Labour or the hard right. Don't let fear win here. pic.twitter.com/lBafANnlft — The Labour Party (@UKLabour) May 19, 2019 Maybe the problem’s that its seen a pro-Brexit party Over the weekend, there has been a flurry of apparently panicky messages coming out of the Labour Party to try to stop the seepage of support to the unequivocally pro-remain parties of the Lib Dems and the Greens. The above Tweet is the latest example. This is…

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The latest Euro polls find BRX reinforcing its position with the LDs starting to nudge LAB out of second place

The latest Euro polls find BRX reinforcing its position with the LDs starting to nudge LAB out of second place

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New New @ComRes Euro voting intention for S Mirror / S Express finds CON on 9% seven points behind the LDs Brexit P 31% (+4)Lab 23% (-2)LD 16% (+2)Con 9% (-4)Grn 9% (-)CUK 4% (-2)SNP 4% (+1)UKIP 2% (-1)PC 1% (-) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2019 YouGov/Datapraxis poll for the Euros Best for Britain/Hope Not Hate puts LDs in second place with the Tories on fifthBREX 34LD 17LAB 15GRE 11CON 9CHUK 4UKIP 3SNP 3PC 1Other 3 Sample size…

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Why Revoke is now very much on the table

Why Revoke is now very much on the table

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May’s departure and a flight to the extremes aids stopping Brexit A zombie government will bring a zombie Withdrawal Agreement back to parliament next month, and in true zombie style, it will get bashed and still not really die. Ever since the first Meaningful Vote in January, when the government lost by well over 200 votes, Theresa May has been locked in a political vice where she couldn’t countenance No Deal, couldn’t accept No Brexit but couldn’t deliver any Brexit…

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The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say so

The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say so

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The differences are unbridgeable and any deal unratifiable Like a sketch show parody of a Victorian dinner crossed with Weekend at Bernie’s, the negotiators in the Con-Lab Brexit negotiations have been determined to maintain the pretence that all is still well despite the talks having died some time during the soup course; it’s just that everyone is too polite to say so. That pretence has finally begun to break down as both the realities of the talks themselves and the…

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Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that he’s running and moves to a 27% favourite in the betting

Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that he’s running and moves to a 27% favourite in the betting

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange So the CON backbenchers who have been unhappy with Mrs May’s handling of the brexit process have sort of got their way and there is agreed process for how she will go and when. The 1922 Chair Graham Brady summed up things like this:- “We have agreed to meet to decide the timetable for the election of a new leader of the Conservative party as soon as the second reading has occurred…

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If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

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Dealing with turnout is very challenging One of the common criticisms of pollsters in recent years is that they have a tendency to herd particularly as we get closer to elections. Well for sure that’s one thing that isn’t happening this time. With just a week and one day to go the above chart shows the Brexit party lead in the most recent polls and as can be seen there is a huge gap between the figures from YouGov and…

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It’s now just possible to contemplate that my 32p Euros bet at 990/1 might just be a winner

It’s now just possible to contemplate that my 32p Euros bet at 990/1 might just be a winner

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BMG Euros poll for the Indy hasBXP 26%LAB 22%LD 19%CON 12%GRN 10%CUK 3%So the LDs just 7 points behind BXP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2019 Just before the local elections I offered political punters on the Betfair exchange Euro election that I’d bet £2 on the LDs at 990 to win most seats in the Euros. This was pure speculation and something I often do. Normally there are no takers but in this came someone came forward and…

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The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls

The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls

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The blues down to 22% with Opininum WM poll Latest Westminster polling numbers from @OpiniumResearch sees the Tories down to just 22%. BREX now in third place just one point behindLAB 28 (-5)CON 22 (-4)BREX 21 (+4)LD 11 (+5) UKIP 4CHUK 4 , — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2019 And for the Euros TMay’s party down to 11% below the LDs New @OpiniumResearch Euro poll has CON slipping into FOURTH placeBREX 34%LAB 21% LD 12% CON 11%GRN 8% UKIP…

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