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Category: BREXIT

The best test of a pollster is not how they’re currently doing against other firms but what happened last time they were tested

The best test of a pollster is not how they’re currently doing against other firms but what happened last time they were tested

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I am afraid that I have to disagree with David Herdson on his latest Saturday thread about YouGov understating Labour. Firstly you cannot judge pollsters’ based on their current surveys when less than 5 weeks ago they were tested against a real election involving real voters. In the two charts above I compare LAB and LD vote shares for the May Euros in their final published polls.  Just two of them can claim to have come out of the election…

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The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have to make

The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have to make

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You need to watch politics in split-screen at the moment. In both Labour and the Conservatives, a group of politicians has come to a fork in the road. In both cases, there is no shortage of fellow party supporters telling them to fork off. Conservative Remainers have had a desperate few years. The referendum result was not the start of it. Well before they lost the referendum, they had lost their party. They have spent the last three years seeking…

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In Brecon and Radnorshire the Remain parties are united and the big battle is between the pro-Brexit ones

In Brecon and Radnorshire the Remain parties are united and the big battle is between the pro-Brexit ones

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Letter to B&R voters from ex-CON MP Chris Davies The start of a new politics? A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats who, of course, held the seat until GE2015. So unlike other previous elections there will be a single remain choice. Meanwhile, as can be seen from the Chris Davies…

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YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to remain

YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to remain

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I like this YouGov approach to discerning public opinion on Brexit – set out the four main option and get people to rank them. The results, which have just been published, are in the table above. The numbers broadly speak for themselves but notice the gender divide.  Women are less likely to make no deal their top choice than men. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Johnson appears to be planning to ignore parliament if it sought to block a no deal Brexit

Johnson appears to be planning to ignore parliament if it sought to block a no deal Brexit

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Dangerous stuff from the wannabe PM Re-reading Johnson interview, he appears to imply he would ignore parliament if it voted against no deal "It would be up to the prime minister of the day. I have myself to decide under the current terms of the extension that we have to apply for such an extension" pic.twitter.com/eGxEqdFsfv — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 25, 2019

It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

It looks as though August 1st will be the date of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

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The signs are that today will see the writ being moved for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election to fill the vacancy created by the success of the recall petition that has seen the sitting Conservative MP, Chris Davies, forced out of his seat. This follows his conviction and sentencing for expenses fraud. The date looks set to be August 1st bang in the middle of the holiday season. Extraordinarily it was confirmed yesterday that Mr Davies has been selected as…

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Happy anniversary. Brexit three years on from the referendum

Happy anniversary. Brexit three years on from the referendum

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Year four in the Big Brexit house and the housemates are not getting any happier. The referendum vote saw off one Prime Minister immediately and a second is shortly to be evicted from Number 10 before Britain has left the EU. It’s entirely possible that Theresa May’s replacement might be ousted before Brexit is implemented too. Before contemplating the fate of the next Conservative leader, let’s start by looking at how the country is shaping up now. It’s not looking…

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Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?

Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?

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There’s a good chance it will be overtaken by a general election The problem with being spoilt for excitement politically (apart from the complete wreckage of the party system, trust in politics and – who knows – maybe the country itself) is that there’s no time to sit back and appreciate what’s just gone before the next instalment arrives. While that might be irritating for commentators, it has real practical effects too. The Brecon & Radnorshire recall petition has unseated…

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