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Category: BREXIT

Just 8 days after he enters Number 10 PM Johnson will face his first CON by-election defence

Just 8 days after he enters Number 10 PM Johnson will face his first CON by-election defence

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A loss in his first week would be a big blow In the week after Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister he will face his first by-election defence in the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. Looking through the records this appears to be unprecedented. There hasn’t in modern times been a by-election scheduled to take place so soon after a new PM takes office and, inevitably it is going to be seen as something of a verdict on him. This…

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Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

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In two weeks’ time, Britain will have a Prime Minister whose commitment to democracy is contingent. Boris Johnson has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing Parliament in order to secure a no deal Brexit by 31 October 2019. Let us call proroguing Parliament by its proper name: suspending democracy. The United Kingdom operates with an executive that is supervised by the legislature. If the executive suspends the legislature (which is what proroguing is), it is suspending the democratic control of…

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New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

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  Scenario 1: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year before Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote? Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: CON 23% LD 23% BREX 21% LAB: 17% GRN: 8% But there’s the possibility of success after Brexit…

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The LDs and Greens can breathe a sigh of relief – LAB’s Brexit fudge to continue

The LDs and Greens can breathe a sigh of relief – LAB’s Brexit fudge to continue

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https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1148274041456930816 This is just an absurd position. How can you negotiate a good deal if the EU knows you will campaign against a bad one? https://t.co/6pPMG9RjZ7 — Aaron Bell (@AaronBell80) July 8, 2019 A gift to the unequivocal Remain parties Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The Midas touch. Living in a world of abundant knowledge

The Midas touch. Living in a world of abundant knowledge

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In the middle ages, Timbuktu was fabulously wealthy. It controlled the gold trade and it had all the riches that you would expect from that. Mansa Musa, the sultan, had a fortune that you couldn’t dream away, you couldn’t wish away.   The sultan, as a good Muslim, performed the hajj, making the pilgrimage to Mecca. Being fabulously wealthy as well as a good Muslim, he travelled with a retinue of 60,000 men. All along the way, he gave gold to…

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The harsh facts that the leadership contenders need to face

The harsh facts that the leadership contenders need to face

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Lawyers are rarely regarded with affection.  Lawyers-turned-politicians even less so.  Nonetheless David Gauke’s speech at this week’s Lord Mayor’s banquet is worth a careful read, not least for its defence of the rule of law as a critical element underpinning democracy (a word never off the lips of some politicians wholly ignorant that something more than shouting “The people have voted” repeatedly is needed to sustain a democracy).  Gauke’s quiet praise for the unfashionable virtues of public service, intellectual rigour, a…

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The LD battle is a lot tighter than the current betting suggests

The LD battle is a lot tighter than the current betting suggests

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Ed Davey has a better than a 17% chance If you want to base a predictions on the Betfair market then Jo Swinson, the 39 year old ex Lib Dem minister in the Coalition, is heading for a clear victory in the Lib Dem leadership contest. Her opponent, former cabinet minister Ed Davey, is currently at just a 17% chance on the betting exchange with Swinson on an 83% one. As might be expected I know a lot of Lib…

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